BFH's View From The Rock

The "other" idea...

2011-06-21T18:37:00.002-10:00

I mentioned in my previous post that I found two ways to acquire Kemp that seemingly made sense. I opted to go the simpler route where we pay the maximum price via prospects, but pay a boatload. The other option would not be so popular with most Braves fans, but would lessen the cost to us in prospects and push the depth of our pitching to the brink. So without further delay, the "other" idea is listed below...

The Three Team Trade

Jair Jurrjens to the Cincinnati Reds; Yonder Alonso/Jordan Schafer/Randall Delgado/Reds Prospect to the Los Angeles Dodgers; Matt Kemp/Chris Heisey to the Atlanta Braves

To many, this may not make a lick of sense, especially for the Braves to give up Jurrjens AND two prospects the caliber of Schafer and Delgado. However, the bulk of the price tag is to acquire Kemp, while the cost of Schafer in the deal is basically to land Heisey.
Heisey, as a 4th outfielder, is pretty good. Yet, I find the urge to acquire him in such a deal not only to be a 4th outfielder for the 2011 season and potentially 2012 season, but to supplant Prado in left field eventually when Prado is forced back to the infield by a Chipper Jones retirement. Heisey is great defensively and hits enough to stick in the lineup. The biggest problem is that Heisey does not draw many walks. Pairing him with Freddie Freeman may be a dangerous endeavor. Though, with guys like McCann and Heyward, the Braves will still draw their fair share of passes.

GM Hot Seat Trade Deadline '11: Go Big or Go Home

2011-06-21T17:28:00.001-10:00

Last night I hinted that I may have an idea to bring Matt Kemp to Atlanta and I'm going to deliver on that idea. I will admit that this is not my all-time favorite idea, but I managed to make a whole lot of sense out of it. For what it's worth, I figured two ways this could possibly work. Both seem like feasible options to me; one focusing primarily on 2011 and the other with a focus on 2011, but with a watchful eye on the future. The wanna-be-GM in me wants to go with the latter, but for the sake of Braves fans who want instant gratification, I'll present the first option.

Now, I'll be completely honest. Matt Kemp's name is probably only coming up because of the monetary issues Frank McCourt is having in LA. If he were not in so much debt, Kemp would be a keeper, no doubt about it. However, with his impending payroll obligations looming and MLB looming to seize control of the team to quick sell it, Kemp's name just may hit the table; especially if potential new ownership of the team wants to liquidate some of the contracts on the Dodgers roster. Matt Kemp, though, is still a very valuable player. He will not come at some bargain basement price tag like some people will like to think. The Dodgers will extract as much as they possibly can if Kemp is to be moved. The Braves are one of the few teams out there capable for paying up to the extravagant price while not mortgaging their future.

Before I get started and knee deep into this, I'll refresh everyone on the layout of my GM Hot Seat posts. Considering this is the trade deadline edition, we do not have to worry about free agent signings like the off-season editions, but there are some assumptions that need to be stated. With that in mind, I present the acquisitions first, then list the assumptions after them, quickly followed by the final 25 man roster including any DL spots that I feel are worth mentioning for the stretch run. That said, we're off and running.

Trades

Nate McLouth and $1.2M to the Seattle Mariners for a C-prospect.

Nate McLouth's remaining salary for the season at the trade deadline will be around $2.2M. Sending the Mariners some money will not only help them gain some depth for their outfield, but it will also make the investment a low-risk buy. In return the Braves net a C-prospect, well short of what they spent to acquire McLouth from Pittsburgh just a couple years earlier. This is a classic way for the Braves to just cut their losses. The total payroll savings from this move will be approximately $1M on the season payroll.

Scott Linebrink to the Texas Rangers for Julio Borbon.

I'll be the first to say that I like Scott Linebrink and what he brings to the Atlanta bullpen. However, when you are maneuvering and jockeying for position to land a player the caliber of Matt Kemp on a rather tight payroll, there will be "casualties", if you want to call it that. Trading Linebrink is merely an additional cost-saving maneuver that will allow Frank Wren to dump an additional $0.7M or so at the deadline. In return, he'll receive a 4th outfielder with tons of speed and who rates well defensively according to UZR. Borbon would bring the element of speed and a potential starter in left field for the long term if Prado has to be shifted back to the infield for whatever reason.

Randall Delgado, Tyler Pastornicky, Jordan Schafer and Brett Oberholtzer to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Jamie Carroll and $1M.

Ouch. Sending away 4 of your top prospects is a painful move to make and very reminiscent of the Teixeira deal that John Schuerholz is highly despised for. Like the Teixeira acquisition, this seems to be extremely short-sighted, as Kemp can only be retained for a season and two months before becoming a free agent in 2013. However, the major difference is that Kemp is not represented by Scott Boras which will make it exponentially easier to negotiate a longterm deal if we so please. The move adds about $2M to the payroll, as Kemp's remaining salary is approximately $2.4M and Carroll's is $0.6M, keeping in mind the $1M in payment via the trade.

25 Man Roster (Rotation in order by salary amount)

Derek Lowe

Tim Hudson

Jair Jurrjens

Tommy Hanson (assuming health)

Brandon Beachy (assuming health)

Cristhian Martinez

Scott Proctor

George Sherrill

Eric O'Flaherty

Cory Gearrin

Jonny Venters

Craig Kimbrel

CA Brian McCann

1B Freddie Freeman

2B Dan Uggla

3B Chipper Jones

SS Alex Gonzalez

LF Martin Prado (assuming health)

CF Matt Kemp

RF Jason Heyward

CA David Ross

IF Brooks Conrad

OF Julio Borbon

PH Eric Hinske

UT Jamie Carroll

DL Kris Medlen - He will assume the bullpen role being occupied by Cory Gearrin when he returns and we can ease him back into high leverage situations.

The assumptions/conclusions

The assumption here is that Beachy, Hanson and Prado return to health and are reinserted into the rotation and the lineup respectively.

We will also kind of assume Kris Medlen will return from Tommy John surgery at some point late in the season to potentially help us out of the bullpen down the stretch. His return and the presence of Cory Gearrin in the system allows for the Linebrink trade.

Julio Borbon will be primarily used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement late in games, shifting Prado to the infield for someone like Chipper or if Uggla continues to struggle offensively.

Jamie Carroll brings back a veteran presence to the utility role that we lost when we traded Omar Infante and will be used for spot starts and defensive double switches.

The lineup, once everyone is healthy, will be as such on most occasions:

2B Martin Prado

RF Jason Heyward

3B Chipper Jones

CF Matt Kemp

CA Brian McCann

2B Dan Uggla

1B Freddie Freeman

SS Alex Gonzalez

I've got an idea...

2011-06-20T19:37:00.001-10:00

....and it's a doozy. I'll have to work on it some other night, but it includes the Braves landing Matt Kemp and making him fit into payroll. lol

The Nate McLouth Conundrum

2011-06-18T17:21:00.001-10:00

Nate McLouth is set to be activated from the DL tomorrow, perhaps much to the chagrin of many Braves fans. His return, however, strikes up a set of new and interesting problems to begin pondering solutions to.

First of all, with Jordan Schafer having played admirably (note I did not say excellently) in McLouth's stead, do the Braves demote Schafer again in favor of the lesser defense of McLouth? Well, it seems like this won't become a problem until Martin Prado is completely healthy. So the Braves have a couple more weeks to ponder this question. However, when the time comes, it seems Schafer will be Gwinnett bound.

Next up on the docket, under the assumption that McLouth does not light it up in his return to the lineup, we must consider potential replacements for him. There is the simple rout of taking Schafer's defense as an upgrade. However, it does not solve our biggest issue, which is offensive production from the position. A trade will be made to upgrade somewhere in the outfield and centerfield seems like the likely spot to upgrade considering Prado's production in left and Heyward's potential in right.

With that in mind, having McLouth man the bench as a $6.5M would be an epic waste of money to the Braves. If they are unable to keep McLouth in the starting lineup they will have to find a trade to rid themselves of at least part of that salary, and this is where I come in. In the following paragraphs I'll list some potential destinations to send McLouth to.

Cleveland Indians

The Indians top my list of potential destinations because they fit both the offensive need and the desire for lower priced talent. They started the year hot, but have slowed as of late allowing the Detroit Tigers to run them down in the division.

In the mediocre AL Central, they should be good enough to hang tough with the Tigers long enough to become buyers at the deadline and McLouth could potentially interest them if they are not willing to relinquish better packages of prospects to land guys like Josh Willingham or Hunter Pence.

The Indians are set in centerfield and left with Grady Sizemore and Michael Brantley respectively, and will likely be patient with rightfielder Shin Soo Choo. However, how patient can they be? They have Austin Kearns who has not hit worth a lick this season and may need another capable outfielder to spell Sizemore and Choo down the stretch.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox make my list because they have been better of late and could stand to upgrade in their outfield on the cheap.

Juan Pierre hasn't been the same Juan Pierre in the past and is hitting just .255, .318, .298. Not hitting or drawing walks, Pierre has become a noodle armed liability on both sides of the ball.

Alex Rios also presents the ChiSox a weird problem. As much as they want to respect Rios' production from last season, his .204, .258, .298 line makes Pierre seem like a God among gods.

Both of these positions would be upgraded by McLouth, even if by a marginal amount.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are sticking around in the AL West. They're also sticking around while fielding Franklin Gutierrez in centerfield featuring his .193, .230, .265 line. If the Mariners are having issues scoring runs, it's not all because Ichiro is not hitting like....well, Ichiro. It's because they are fielding a team with offensive albatrosses like Franklin Gutierrez, Brendan Ryan and Chone Figgins. McLouth could go a long way towards improving their chances in that division.

Finally, there are some other teams who would benefit from McLouth's presence. Perhaps the Red Sox could use another backup outfielder other than Mike Cameron? Maybe the Blue Jays could stay in contention and seek an upgrade of Rajai Davis? Hell, maybe even the Tigers will want to add more girth to their already cluttered offense and try to jam McLouth's bat in there just because he's not Magglio Ordonez?

In any event, trading McLouth won't be easy unless he starts hitting. We will have to eat part of his salary to move him and it may be the right course of action to take once Prado is back and healthy and the team starts looking for offensive upgrades.

Ryan Ludwick revisited

2011-06-12T04:17:00.001-10:00

A year ago at about this time over at Chop Nation Forums, I suggested the radical notion that the Cardinals would be willing to trade Ryan Ludwick and we could put him in leftfield to solve our problems on offense. There stood several problems to the idea; first of which being the Cardinals were not in real need of moving Ludwick at his perceived lowest value, nor did we match up well as we did not quite have the pitching they desired (ha...that sounds odd considering our depth).

Anyway, the theory proved right in that the Cardinals DID move Ludwick in a trade and it was sad that all it took was Jake Westbrook. Okay, so we don't really have a Jake Westbrook...that's affordable. But it was still disappointing.

Considering we can't change the past and what's done is done, we do have a second chance to acquire Ryan Ludwick a year later. The Padres are at the bottom of the NL West (only by 7.5 games at the moment, though) and could be sellers at the trade deadline. If they do so, Ludwick will be one of their main trade pieces on the offensive side of the ball. He makes $6.775M in his final arbitration year and will become a free agent after the season and likely would not cost an arm and a leg like the Beltran idea would. He is currently hitting .266, .337, .412, which does not exactly jump off the page at anyone. However, his numbers can be a bit misleading, as PETCO Park has swallowed him whole. In 25 games away from the "Hitter's Hell Hole" as I once called it, Ludwick is sporting a much more attractive .313, .358, .465 slash line.

Perhaps the best part of this situation is that Ryan Ludwick would not be a defensive liability like Beltran would seem to be. Ludwick is a rather decent defender in his career at the corner outfield spots and could even play an emergency centerfield with pretty average output.

Ultimately, if Beltran were to cost you a B-prospect and a couple of C's, Ryan Ludwick may not cost you any more than a couple of C-prospects. If Ludwick were to stay healthy and hit to his potential...the difference in "wins" they'd provide compared to the price we'd give up to get them over the course of a two month rental period would be near negligible. Ludwick could very well be the "smarter" buy.

As alternatives, using similar concepts, I'll also throw out two more familiar names to those who know my style; Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer.

Solution Time?

2011-06-10T14:48:00.005-10:00

In my last post earlier this morning, I talked about where the Braves have underachieved (or expected suckage has come through) and suggested a place where they could stand to improve without either destroying team chemistry or pissing off their newly signed slugging 2B.

For those who did not, do not want to, or are just too plain lazy to read this post, I suggested the place for improvement to be in centerfielder where our team's combined effort has amounted to a .228, .328, .316 line. I've gone through some names in the past, most notably Grady Sizemore a while ago...but today I'll spitball a new big name; one we're rather familiar with.

In my previous post, I suggested that any good GM or wanna-be-GM would be looking to improve upon their current club. Here, I will ramble through an idea, which does not initially make sense...but makes enough sense when all is said and done. That idea is...Carlos Beltran.

Ok, for the folks who stuck with me after the uncontrollable laughter and scoffing...here's why I feel it could work out.

First and foremost, I'll go over some of the basic facts that are what they are. The Braves need a bat that can stay in there versus both right and left handers. The Braves could stand to improve their production in the outfield. The Mets are going no where fast and they may be pressured to move a big salary to save some money down the stretch.

There are three big questions to pose on how Carlos Beltran would fit in before we dive head first into the discussion. How will the Braves fit his salary into the payroll? How will the defensive alignment settle in with him on the roster? Is there a package of prospects we can put together to be the right fit for the Mets?

I'll start with salaries. The Braves are currently near their threshold in salary. Taking on a player making $18.5M in the final year of a contract shouldn't fit, right? Mmm...well, that depends on how much research you do and how creative you want to be. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, $5.5M of Beltran's salary is to be deferred at 1.72% interest. Of course, the Mets will be on the tab for that. I don't recall a situation where the acquiring team would have been responsible for all of the deferred payments. However, once you consider the amount of deferred money, Beltran becomes a $13M player, or approximately a $6M acquisition at the trade deadline. Considering that is still a reasonably large amount, the Mets may be willing to pick up as much as $2-3M of that remaining salary making Beltran a $3-4M investment on an acquiring club. If, and a big if, we can find a taker for Nate McLouth and his $6.5M salary, it should off-set the difference. If not, we can always do the same thing the Mets are doing and pay some of McLouth's salary to make an acquiring club more at ease of acquiring his services (along with paying his buy out for 2012). Of course, having the Mets pick up some of his salary would result in the price tag in prospects raising slightly.

So with the monetary issue resolved, how would Beltran fit in defensively? It's an extremely valid question to pose. When healthy, the Braves outfield would feature Martin Prado in left field and Jason Heyward in right. Neither are centerfielders, and Beltran on sketchy knees probably should not be relied upon to play center either. However, Carlos Beltran has shown this season that he can be an adequate, if not average, right fielder. That in mind, I shall tap into the comments made by Bobby Cox and others last season that suggested Jason Heyward could play center in a pinch if he needed to. Moving Heyward to centerfield could be no worse defensively than we currently are with a healthy Nate McLouth slotted as a starter. The hopeful increase in offensive production from the position with a healthier Heyward would off-set whatever defensive deficiency we would take on by acquiring Beltran to place in right.

Now that we've placed everyone defensively, what would the Mets want? Having the Mets pick up most, or even some, of Beltran's annual salary would raise the price tag in prospects. That's just basic GM'ing. The fact that Beltran is currently hitting by itself already makes him worth a few decent prospects. However, for a rental...it should not be so extravagant an expense that we should dismiss the idea. At most, a B-prospect along with a couple of C-prospects should be enough to get the Mets to blink in negotiations. If they are expecting more, we can always look to acquiring more outfield depth elsewhere.

Getting more into specifics. Look at the Mets' areas of need. A middle infielder if Jose Reyes leaves and Ruben Tejeda takes over? Maybe, unless they put Justin Turner at 2B when Wright is back and healthy. Perhaps another outfielder to replace Beltran? Certainly, as they have only Pagan and Bay returning as starters. More pitching depth? Definitely, as Santana has become an albatross, Pelfrey has not developed as planned and they are currently relying on R.A. Dickey to play a critical role in their rotation's success. Perhaps a package of J.J. Hoover, Mycal Jones (who was suspended for DUI; might seem like a guy we don't want to deal with) and an upfront reliever like, say, Cory Gearrin (which frees a bullpen slot for Kris Medlen's return later in the summer).

Hoover and Jones alone may be a steep price to pay for a rental, but I think we can accommodate some of their areas of need, especially if they throw in a C-prospect from their end as well. A trade both teams could probably benefit from immensely.

It may be a stretch, and it may be unlikely...but it's not impossible to work out a deal for Beltran inter-division. Wren has shown the willingness to deal within the division before on several occasions. I'd expect him to at least give the Mets a call this year and inquire about Beltran's availability and price tag.

Our Offensive Offense

2011-06-10T07:37:00.001-10:00

The Braves' problems on offense, which were supposed to be resolved with the acquisition of Dan Uggla last winter, has sputtered out of the gait through the first 60+ games of the season. They rank 13th in the NL in runs and OBP and 10th in SLG. It would have been foolish to imagine the Braves to rank in the top 5 in the NL, but it would have been equally foolish to envision them in the bottom fifth of the league.

Much of the blame will probably be placed on Dan Uggla's massive struggles in Atlanta and that would be rightfully so. Honest, I would be lying if I said I weren't extremely disappointed in his performance thus far. However, with Uggla's extensive history of hitting for power, I find myself less worried about Big Bad Dan and his massive forearms than I did Nate McLouth when we acquired him from Pittsburgh. 2011 has seen Uggla go from career highs in most notable offensive categories to a pitiful line of .170, .235, .304. His average may never reach the .280+ level it did last season ever again, but his power will come around eventually, whether this year or next. His stats will return to a bit of normalcy in due time.

Yet, that does not resolve the here and now. The Braves, despite their massive futility on offense, find themselves in the heat of a division race with the heavily favored Phillies. Thank the baseball gods for pitching. That's all I have to say about that, really.

Keeping in mind the complete lunacy of sitting idle and praying to a higher power for the pitching prowess to continue, any good GM and/or wanna-be-GM is constantly looking for ways to improve his or her ball club. While Dan Uggla's frustrating season may be the root of the problem on offense, he can not be blamed completely. It has been, for the most part, a team effort in futility and the biggest culprits have been the combination of Uggla, Alex Gonzalez, Jason Heyward and the combination of players the Braves have run out to centerfield.

I'll pass over Heyward for the moment, as his issues have come as a result of a balky shoulder (which is another discussion I won't get into). However, Alex Gonzalez has been a pretty big problem on offense. No one expected Gonzalez to be an .800 OPS guy, or even a .750 OPS guy. Gonzalez, as the team put it last season, is a clubhouse guy first. The upgrade in "chemistry", without arguing its merits, was supposed to be a difference maker over the cancerous personality of Yunel Escobar. I'll take everyone's word for it who know the two players and when they say there's a big difference. On a positive note, it was not a total loss on defense. Yunel provides excellent defense, while Gonzalez is just good. No loss, I guess. Then there's the offense. Gonzalez has struggled to reach the .700 OPS level and, well, we're seeing the very best of Gonzalez on offense lately as he's hitting .266. It doesn't look like we'll be upgrading over a clubhouse favorite anytime soon, though. Moving on.

Centerfield has long been a problem for the Braves ever since Andruw Jones got it into his head that he was a homerun hitter and admitted he didn't ever try to go to rightfield with an outside pitch, thus making him an easy out to every pitcher with an offspeed pitch they could locate on the outside corner. That said, Atlanta Braves centerfielders have combined to hit .228, .328, .316 this season. Perhaps more troublesome is the .644 combined OPS, nearly 50 points lower than the OTHER problem, Alex Gonzalez. Even if Nate McLouth returns healthy, there is a problem in center as there was last season and the season before. Someone needs to step up, like yesterday.

All that said, I presented 3 areas that can stand for improvement. Dan Uggla and his contract are going to be given the time to work things out. Alex Gonzalez, the clubhouse chemistry guy, probably will not be unseated as long as he is playing his brand of defense and tolerable offense. Centerfield appears to be the place for any type of upgrade, if it's needed...which appears it is.

Opportunity

2011-06-03T23:50:00.000-10:00

I have viewed the Braves as a team of opportunity in years of late. Frank Wren has made it a habit to capitalize when he has the opportunity to exploit value at it's highest to extract a good return (as he did with the Edgar Renteria and Javier Vazquez situations) or to pick up spare pieces at their lowest value (a la Greg Norton before he sucked, David Ross, Eric O'Flaherty, etc).

While it may not be quite time for him to capitalize on someone's extreme value, there are a couple of opportunities for Wren to pick up players at their lowest possible value.

Recently the Orioles had designated their backup catcher/corner infield/corner outfielder Jake Fox. Once a great hitting prospect coming up with the Cubs organization, Fox has struggled to get a handle on major league pitching and is by no means a "prospect" anymore at the age of 28 (soon to be 29). Fox does not make much contact, nor does he draw many walks. He has zero speed and he is basically a defensive liability no matter where you put him. However, if you're just looking for some pop...he's somewhat intriguing for the price. If you can convince the Orioles to hand him over for a minor leaguer with minimal upside, Fox is definitely worth a look.

However, I do have an alternative to Fox. The Astros thought they had made a wise investment this past winter when they signed utility player Bill Hall away from the Red Sox to be their everyday second baseman. Let's just say that did not go as well as they had planned it. In 147 AB, Hall posted a line of .224, .272, .340, leaving much to be desired. But where the Astros disappointment in an investment ends, an opportunity is presented. Much in the same way Greg Norton was discarded by the Mariners several years back, Hall's value is hitting rock bottom. Hall's ability to play 2B, 3B, SS and all across the outfield gives him the type of flexibility that should make him worthwhile, even if he ceases to hit. Bringing him in at league minimum after the Astros are forces to release him could provide use with a little bit more thump off the bench that the Braves desire. Afterall, it was just a year ago where Hall hit 18 homeruns in just under 350 AB with the Red Sox. The best part of all being that 10 of his 18 homeruns coming on the road away from the Green Monster at Fenway.

If the Braves can sign him, I'd be in full support of bringing Hall on board. He was a guy I was hoping would be forced to sign for $1M or less this winter, and was quite disappointed the Astros decided to splurge. Now is the Braves' opportunity to get him if they want him. We'll see if Frank Wren sees this as an opportunity or views it as a waste of time.

Then again...

2011-05-28T20:57:00.003-10:00

Ok...so maybe the Indians are for real? Hell, weirder things have happened and it doesn't look like they're going to fade very fast in what's a very subpar AL Central.

That being said, we'll move on from the Grady Sizemore idea and I'll suggest another. This time we'll focus our efforts on finding right-handed bats.

We will work under the following massive assumptions:

Jason Heyward will return somewhat healthy and produce enough to keep him in the lineup.
Some combination of Nate McLouth and/or Jordan Schafer will handle CF for the remainder of 2011.
Chipper Jones will remain healthy enough to suit up and run himself out to 3B on a semi-daily basis.

With those "stipulations" in mind, here we go. In no particular order...

Jamie Carroll - Great defensive flexibility with the ability to play 2B, 3B, SS and LF and only makes $1.8M in 2011 before becoming a free agent. Hit .291 last season and sits at .299 right now. Also works counts well and gets on base at a pretty good pace. The problem would be that he does not intimidate any opposing pitchers. At all. Perhaps the reason he's hitting .290+ is because he is the guy pitchers are challenging, if they have to. I mean...who would you rather have beat you, Jamie Carroll or Andre Ethier? Just saying.

Jeff Baker - He has the ability to play 1B, 2B, 3B and the corner spots in the outfield. He absolutely murders left-handed pitching, much like our old friend Matt Diaz used to. Perhaps best of all, he only makes $1.175M in 2011 and would be arbitration eligible for the final time in 2012. However, there in lies the problem with Baker. He is extremely limited to platoon-duty much like Matt Diaz was and the Cubs can retain him for the 2012 season and will hold onto him if they are not completely satisfied with a return for him.

Jerry Hairston Jr. - As my good friend Tommy would have called him, a swiss army knife. 2B, 3B, SS and all across the outfield. Hairston will cover every position we'd probably need him to cover if we ever needed him to. That's sort of where the praise ends, though. Hairston isn't much with the stick, nor does he get on base at a good clip. Doesn't hit for power and probably would make us wish we had Jamie Carroll. I think the latter is enough to strike fear into our hearts.

Wilson Betemit - Braves fans should be familiar with his name. He was also a favorite target of mine in the off-season in my GM Hot Seat series. Only makes $1M and will likely be highly coveted at the trade deadline. Can play 1B and 3B, but is probably best suited coming off the bench as a pinch hitter. His lack of defensive ability and flexibility is really an issue, though.

Michael Cuddyer - His name came up in Braves rumors rather often this past winter, and I am SUPER happy that the Braves did not acquire him as many "experts" thought they would. Cuddyer, however, does have some pretty decent defensive flexibility for a guy that's supposed to be an everyday guy. He can play 1B, 2B, 3B and the corner outfield (with a sprinkling of CF, though, you probably won't want him there by choice). He also has a decent amount of power, once posting a 32 HR season in 2009. Not that he'll ever be a big time power guy ever again, but he does have that pop that could be valuable alongside Hinske on the bench. The problem is that Cuddyer makes $10.5M in 2011, a massive amount for a guy limited to hitting left-handed pitching. That said, with the Twins fading fast as I thought they would, they may opt to eat whatever salary necessary in order to move him. If they eat enough of that salary, Cuddyer could prove to be a wise investment...which would likely spell the end of Brooks Conrad's time in a Braves uniform.

Thinking ahead...

2011-05-04T20:48:00.000-10:00

Quick post, as I'm just about ready to pass out from my workout. Been a while since I posted, but 'tis proof in the pudding that my specialty comes in the off-season.

Anywho, I was thinking ahead a bit...and while this isn't completely plausible....yet.....I have one player who I might want to target at the trade deadline if I am in the GM seat. That player's name is Grady Sizemore. Many who see this will scoff and think I'm nuts...but this is keeping in mind several assumptions that must come to fruition.

The first is that Grady Sizemore must remain healthy and producing. If he doesn't, then it's a moot point. End of story. Game over.

The second is that the Indians must fall out of contention. While some may believe they are for real, I'm still in the camp that believes they will fade over time and teams such as the White Sox, Tigers...or even some may believe the Twins...will catch fire and overtake them. When they fall out of contention, they may look to cash in on a healthy/producing Sizemore instead of paying him $9M next year.

Finally, there is the assumption that we will find a taker for Nate McLouth. The way he has rebounded hitting at the back of the order, that may not be hard. However, if he nose-dives again, it'll be a complete dump off. In the best case scenario, McLouth continues to hit enough to be part of a three-way trade that lessens the amount we pay for Sizemore. In the worst case scenario, we dump him off just to make the roster space for Sizemore.

And what would it take? Controversial as it is, I would not hesitate to send them Jair Jurrjens and whatever we can get for McLouth (or a couple of prospects ). The trade would make Sizemore's option a player option and guarantee him $9.9M in 2012 if he took it...but hey, if we can extend that, it's a lot better than giving McLouth $10.5M or buying him out.

Right-handed hitter? I have a wishlist...

2011-03-30T00:10:00.000-10:00

Ugh....stupid allergies. Been dealing with them off and on for the last few days and it's really bogging me down. While there's a break between sneezing fits, I thought I'd hop online and type up some things I've been thinking about in regards to the Braves' bench.

So despite coming to a decision on the opening day roster, the Atlanta Braves are still searching for a right-handed hitting to supplement and improve their bench.

I have no problems with that, especially after "Plan A" Joe Mather has already failed to live up to expectations. However, if MLBTradeRumors is correct in guessing some of the options for the Braves, I will have a big problem with the way the Braves are handling the situation. While I respect the research that was done by the writers over at MLBTradeRumors at the time where there were still a lot of "options" available on the free agent list, I will be immensely upset with the organization if they were to add one of the names provided in that link by way of waiver or trade.

As it stands right now, the bench will consist of a "perfect" balance between right-handed and left-handed hitters. We will have David Ross and Brandon Hicks who swing from the right side, Eric Hinske and Matt Young who swing exclusively from the left side and a switch-hitter in Brooks Conrad. In theory, that's as perfect a scenario you could draw up based on handedness. Yet, Hicks is vastly unproven and has not yet established that he can handle major league pitching...nor do you want your best lefty-killer to be your backup catcher. Brooks Conrad appears slated to fill that role for the moment, but as I stated in my last blog post, I'm open to improvements.

With the thought in mind that Matt Young can handle each of the three outfield positions as well as second base, the need for the right-handed bat to be an outfielder (particularly a centerfielder) diminishes. With Eric Hinske's ability to play the corners of the diamond and Hicks' versatility to cover not only shortstop, but also third and second...the need for the last bench spot to play ANY position particularly well almost vanishes. It's probably why Conrad made the team, as he is (aside from Hinske) our most proven pinch-hitting option. With that in mind, though, it makes the task of finding a potential upgrade over Conrad that much easier.

That said, I do have a potential wishlist of players I would hope become available as spring winds to a completion or become available early in the year. The list isn't spectacular, but each serves the purpose of providing the bench with that one guy who can hit left-handed pitching.

The first of which is a name from out in Chicago. The Cubs currently have a battle going between three guys for their starting 2B job. Veterans Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt are attempting to fend off the up and coming Darwin Barney. If, and only if, the Cubs decide to go with Barney, it seemingly opens up the possibility that a guy like Jeff Baker will become expendable. If he does, Baker's career .308, .363, .545 against lefties will surely excite many clubs. He will be like a more versatile version of Matt Diaz and at the price of $1.175M for the 2011 season, he would not put us over the top on budget either. The problem, however, is the Cubs probably are well aware of his ability to hit southpaws and would probably attempt to find some way to keep his bat on the roster.

The next name comes from the AL and is a name a friend of mine seemed jazzed about several years ago. He would probably gloat and say "I told you so..." or something along those lines, but truth is...we had no need for him then, and he was suggesting it as a solution to our problems in left field. That man is Shelley Duncan, former Yankee and currently with the Cleveland Indians. Duncan, a corner outfielder and first baseman, is currently slated to man a position on the Cleveland bench on opening day. That does not seem to make him available, as the Indians will start the year with Grady Sizemore on the DL, but with an eventual return of Sizemore and perhaps even injured speedster Trevor Crowe, Duncan could possibly become available sooner than later. In his career, Duncan has never cracked a starting lineup, though he possesses the ability to hit left-handers at a pretty good pace. A split of .262, .335, .488 in 168 AB against southpaws should have him flying just slightly below the radar of most teams looking for a good bat off the bench.

Sticking to the Cleveland Indians spring camp, they have yet another guy I would be intrigued in acquiring. He hasn't been cut yet, but should be on the chopping block in the coming days. From what I know, I believe the Indians can still return him to the minor leagues...but in the off chance that they are not able to, I wouldn't mind taking the flyer on Chad Huffman, whose name I was intrigued by last season when the Padres designated him for assignment and he was claimed by the Yankees. Last season, Paul DePodesta wrote this in his blog regarding the loss of Huffman on waivers...

We lost the player. And, he's a pretty good one. Chad was a 2nd round pick in 2006 out of TCU and has been a successful minor league hitter throughout his pro career, posting an OPS over .800 in each season. While crushing lefties early in his career, Chad had his most successful year yet against RHP during his first season in AAA in 2009. He always controlled the strike zone and also hit for some power - a combination we like. We think he'll be a good Major League hitter.

Of course, the highlight there is the quote "While crushing lefties...", which is exactly what we would need him to do. Don't get me wrong. He's not spectacular, but he is a young player who has enough potential to provide us with something that would be more than we would ask of him. Would be be a God send? Probably not. Yet, he may be able to impact a game on an individual basis once or twice a week by coming in to face a lefty in a crucial situation. If he can still handle left-handers...he could be our 2011 version of Brooks Conrad as a pinch-hit specialist.

Moving on, there's a name I suggested a couple years back; Conor Jackson. He was once a promising young first baseman, but now finds himself in a reserve role in Oakland. He has missed much of the last two seasons with illnesses and injuries and is set to make a ridiculous $3.2M after settling to avoid arbitration with the A's. He very well may make the roster as a backup left-fielder and 1B, but the A's also have a deep and more talented outfield that can afford to lose Jackson and his overall pedestrian offensive output. His split of .294, .395, .462 against southpaws in his career is really intriguing, though. It's the kind of line I would pay for...but not $3.2M worth. The salary stands to be a problem...and I'd always be wary of dealing with Billy Beane if he were to be eager to eat a salary. However, if Beane is willing to eat some of that salary, I wouldn't be opposed to paying up to acquire him as I believe we have enough depth in our system to be able to throw something Beane's way to satisfy him.

Finally, and not necessarily my preference, I want to point out Jose Lopez. I am a little too zoned out from the benadryl to recall where I saw it...but to my knowledge, the Rockies plan on adding Jason Giambi to their opening day roster. If that were true, I believe the Rockies would be forced to cut a player...and since they spent to sign Ty Wigginton this off-season, Jose Lopez may be the odd man out once Ian Stewart proves healthy. While Lopez does not excite me at all and brings nothing special to the table (potentially the reason he'll be released by the Rockies eventually), Lopez does feature a decent .284, .319, .404 split against lefties. It's not superb, but like other names I've listed...he would serve a sole purpose of coming off the bench to do what he does better than most, hit lefties.

I listed you folks 5 names...and while many may be wishful thinking, I find each situation plausible in some form, fashion or circumstance. If the Braves do decide to upgrade...I'd hope the acquired player would be as good or better than those I have listed. If they choose not to upgrade...then we'll just hope Brooks Conrad has himself another solid year.

Atlanta Announces Opening Day Roster

2011-03-27T11:00:00.000-10:00

As wrong as I was to assume the inclusion of Joe Mather, who was placed on waivers, giving the final spot to Matt Young...I was equally as right to assume the inclusion of the one person who was most heavily debated around the web, Brooks Conrad.

Once again, I am not excusing him for his poor defensive ability, however his ability to switch hit is what makes him virtually irreplaceable. You know, at least until we find another more versatile, better defensive switch hitting infielder.

Congrats to Matt Young and Brandon Hicks, though, who both beat out several other competitors to earn their spots on the opening day roster. It's nice to see the team infuse some speed onto the bench for the late game situations as well.

That said, and to prove I'm not just a Brooks Conrad sympathizer, I do have a suggestion to replace him. Roster cuts are taking place around spring training camps all across the major leagues and there is already one name that sticks out at me like a sore thumb. That name comes out of Tampa Bay and is a name my friend Tommy has mentioned several times in the past, under the condition that he isn't paid handsomely, Felipe Lopez. He's got some pop and the same utility-type flexibility that Omar Infante brought to the table. He may not be much an upgrade over a guy like Conrad as offense goes, but the defensive flexibility would prove priceless.

As proud as I am to have been right about the Braves having plans to keep Conrad around despite his post-season defensive debacle, I'm not above second-guessing my own opinion to suggest the team keep improving itself. If the Braves choose not to add a guy like Lopez, perhaps they'd look towards the NL West where there are several right-handed infielder types who are still staging roster battles and pick the bones there to get themselves a right-hander to backup Eric Hinske.

I look forward to seeing Matt Young and Hicks in Atlanta and I wish Conrad another strong season, minus being forced onto the field on an everyday basis. This team has developed into quite the interesting machine and it'll be fun to see how it all works together for the greater cause of getting back to the post-season.

2011 Season Predictions: Reserving the Right To Reconsider

2011-03-26T18:41:00.000-10:00

I typed up a set of season predictions shortly after I arrived home from Las Vegas about a month ago. With another month of spring training having passed and being able to take in more information and news as it has come along, I'll post a final set of predictions for the 2011 season.

After seeing some spring training games here and there and more importantly, watching the development of roster battles and such, I've played my right to rethink my original statements. There are very few changes, as some of the spring performances have validated my theories or backed up my concerns, but there are other developments that have weighted into my consideration on some of my predictions.

Change #1: AL Central will belong to the Tigers. The Twins are getting healthy and heading in the right direction, but it just seems like each of their injury concerns hangs on by a bit of thread. It won't take much for that team to unravel and I just can't imagine them overtaking my original picks, the White Sox, nor do I think they can outlast my new pick, the Tigers. Why the change to the Tigers? Well, I've thought about it long and hard about their shoddy defense and I've come to the conclusion that it's really not that big a deal over the long haul of a season. Sure, it can certainly impact a good handful of games...but the majority of baseball revolves around playing offense and pitching. With guys like Verlander, Scherzer and a bullpen built to miss bats, it should minimize some of the impact a craptastic defense would have on a team, as compared to say, a team like the Twins who focus more on control and allowing their defense to work for them. The Tigers can hit. The Tigers can pitch. They'll win the central, only to have their shoddy defense destroy them in the first round of the playoffs.

Change #2: Braves take NL East, Phillies take the Wild Card. Ok, so much for predicting the other team to win the division. The Phillies were built to be a beast...in a perfect world. Spring has been anything but perfect for them with multiple injuries. I still predict a member of their vaunted rotation to go down at some point this season...but with all that has piled onto them this spring, I just can't imagine this team staying healthy enough over the season to really get on the roll they'll need to get on to win the division. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Braves will run away with the NL East...but the Phillies certainly aren't going to be the 100 win team a lot of people think they'll be. With a win total in the lower 90's, the Braves will be able to overtake them by a game or two...and yet, the Phillies will still sneak into the playoffs over the unimpressive NL field.

Resulting Changes to the playoffs: Boston faces the Tigers in the AL Division series and steamrolls them. No other changes to the AL bracket. The NL side has the Phillies and Braves flip-flopping opponents. Braves take out the Brewers in a division series match up of pitchers duels. The Phillies get mowed down by the Giants on the other side. Braves defeat the Giants in the NL Championship Series. Same result for the World Series, Braves over Red Sox.

Change #3: NL MVP is Chipper Jones. I'm going to go completely outside of the box on this one. Over the years I've always learned to doubt Chipper because of his health. However, I'm going to go out on the flimsy limb that his injury will motivate him to prove the critics wrong. He's had himself a monster spring thus far and I can only imagine (health permitting) that he carries that momentum into the season and posts a rather impressive year. He won't lead the league in homeruns, RBIs or maybe even average, but the all-around totals he posts along with no clear standout in the NL from playoff teams will give him an extra push. I'll reserve my right to name Jason Heyward, Joey Votto and Albert Pujols as the alternatives for this, of course, you know...because the opinions that matter like to vote for familiar names and all.

State of the Braves: 5 Keys to the Bullpen's Success 2011

2011-03-06T21:37:00.002-10:00

Early in the off-season I looked at the retiring Billy Wagner and the departing Takashi Saito and let out a big sigh. The two combined for 127 games, 123.1 IP, 173 K, 2.04 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP. Together, they were what I like to call frickdiculous, and that is why I felt that the Braves would have their hands full trying to reconstruct a bullpen that was such a great asset to the team's success.

I once suggested that the Braves would need a minimum of two relievers to be imported to replace the departed veterans and I'm pleased to have been accurate on that statement with the additions of Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill. However, with the incoming veterans, Linebrink and Sherrill, there leaves a lot to be desired when compared to the tandem of Wagner and Saito. In the following paragraphs, I'll go over 5 keys to the Braves bullpen once again being an asset while presenting the devil's advocate of what could happen if things do not go as planned.

Credit to AP for Photo

First off, we begin with the most questionable of the bunch, George Sherrill. He spent his entire 2010 in Joe Torre's dog house in Los Angeles. Sherrill posted the worst numbers of his career by far, finishing with an ERA of 6.69 and a WHIP of 1.93. The former All-star closer appeared to have hit rock bottom in spring when he showed up overweight and out of shape and once the season began, he found himself a jackhammer and tunneled deeper. It was his 2010 struggles, however, which allowed the Braves to sign Sherrill to the affordable 1-year, $1.2M contract this past winter. Understandably, the Braves have lower expectations for George than both the Dodgers and Orioles did, as they expect Sherrill to supplement fellow southpaws, Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty in combating the division's tougher left-handed sluggers like Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Raul Ibanez and Ike Davis. On the bright side, Sherrill, despite his struggles in '10, held left handers to a slash line of .192, .286, .288 and has always excelled at dominating hitters of the same handedness. In the best case scenario, Sherrill returns to his closer-days form and provides us with exceptional depth and experience in the late innings. In the almost-worst-case scenario, he'll still be able to handle lefties. At the very least...we need him to plateau and not regress. If we can get the same type of production out of him against lefties as he's done throughout his career, we'll be fine. If not, we'll be looking for more veteran help come July.

Credit to MLB.com for Photo

Next up, we'll take a look at Scott Linebrink, the second of the duo which was brought in to mentor the kids at the back end of the bullpen. In a sick and sad way, Frank Wren actually listened to be on this one. I had an early concern that the back end of our bullpen would feature two relievers with BB/9's over 4.5 and a setup crew which struggled to field a man who could post a 3.5. The one thing that Saito and Wagner did well was throw strikes. The veteran crew knew how to come into a game, pound the strike zone and finish it out. When they left, it created a large hole in the command department. Linebrink, while not a stellar reliever anymore, does throw strikes and can likely impart that wisdom upon the loose cannons, Venters and Kimbrel. Long gone are the days which saw Linebrink as a top flight setup man, but we may not need him to be that. If he can continue his current production and keep the kids in line, he'll prove his worth well enough. Anything more is just gravy. Anything less...and, well, we'll once again be looking for veteran help come July.

Photo credit to espncdn.com

Following Linebrink, the third most important factor in the Braves bullpen is a strong sophomore season out of Jonny Venters. The once middling starting pitching prospect found his niche in relief in 2010 and made his mark on the National League. He helped anchor a stellar Braves bullpen alongside Wagner, Saito and others in 2010 and he'll be relied upon to pick up an increased role in 2011. Venters has an outside shot at stealing the closer role away from Craig Kimbrel this spring, but in any event, he is virtually guaranteed the 8th inning setup role barring injury and a massive bomb of a spring training. Venters is what I like to call "effectively wild". He features his nasty sinking fastball along with a hammer of a slider...and has just enough of a lack of control over both weapons to make opposing hitters uneasy of really digging into the box. I rag him for not hitting the strike zone more...but that may alter his level of success negatively. So without starting a debate over Venters' need for better command of his pitches, I'll just say we need Jonny to remain who he was in 2010. If his control regresses, we could witness a complete collapse of the bullpen hierarchy and we could be in for a rather long season.

Credit to AP for photo

Fourth in line, we consider the heir to the closer role, Craig Kimbrel. In my mind's eye, there's no doubt that we absolutely need Craig Kimbrel to take control of the closer role and run with it all season. There's also no doubt in my mind that his stuff is absolutely ready to do so. However, my concern dwells over his shoddy control. Aside from a pair of short stints in A-ball, Kimbrel's BB/9 has never been near or below 4.5 per 9 innings. Not that I think it's essential for a closer to have pinpoint control and all, but having one who puts over 5 guys on in a 9 inning span without much an effort from the offense is a little concerning. One thing to understand about me is that I grew up as a pitcher. My father grilled into my brain that starting and relief pitching were worlds apart...and that while throwing strikes was always important, throwing strikes as a reliever was exponentially more important because of the close-and-late situations you'd probably be facing. Yet, with Kimbrel I find myself thinking that a walk rate near 5 may not matter if he keeps missing bats. I predicted earlier that Kimbrel will take the rookie of the year award in the NL in 2011 and I don't intend to back out of that prediction, but over all relievers in the 2011 Braves bullpen, Kimbrel worries me the most. If he can step in and make us forget about Billy Wagner's retirement, then we'll be in good shape. However, his lack of command may make us rue the day Wagner decided to hang them up.

Finally, I'll discuss a wild card. Who is this wild card? Honestly, I don't exactly know who it is. However, this wild card will either make or break Atlanta if and/or when any of the previously discussed quartet were to break down or fail to meet expectations. Right now, the last spot appears to belong to little know Cristhian Martinez. His strong spring and ability to pitch multiple innings fits the long reliever mold that this team currently lacks in the bullpen. He supposedly has the stuff to pitch in the late innings, but would likely be asked to step into a middle inning role if crap hits the fan at any point this season. Though, there are several names I'd like to just throw out there for reference; if not, just to be able to say I told you so. The first of which is Juan Abreu, a reliever we signed away from the Royals at the end of 2009. Abreu appears to have a live arm and a bit of a control problem (seems like a theme with all of the Braves young relievers). The other, and possibly more intriguing name (at least to me) is a name few will recognize; Jairo Asencio. Asencio actually is his birth name, having had used a false name to sign a contract before being officially eligible. He began his career as Luis Valdez in the Pirates organization before coming over to the Braves system and finding himself as a reliever. 2010 was supposed to be his breakout season as a reliever at the major league level, but he missed the entire season because of visa issues over his name. If Valdez...err, I mean Asencio, can pick up where he left off in the Dominican winter leagues over the last two years, he could be pounding down the bullpen door to Atlanta and forcing all members of the pen to pitch their best games.

All in all, the Braves have the necessary fall back options to make up for any short comings the bullpen may have. They even have a slew of starting pitching prospects who could probably be shifted to the bullpen down the stretch run if things begin to falter late in the year. Not to mention the prospect depth to be able to trade for what they may need in the worst case scenarios. The bullpen should be the Braves strength in 2011. I predict it will be. They just won't be bullet proof like last year's crew seemed to be at times.

2011 Season Predictions Continued

2011-03-01T07:55:00.002-10:00

Last night I got bored and I wrote up some more specific trade situations. These aren't Braves related, but I thought I'd shared my thoughts.

Brewers Go All In

As I stated, the Brewers have the tools in place to contend. If they're in contention in July...expect them to make a desperation move to win a championship while they still have the Fielder/Braun combo intact. To do this, they'll pull the trigger on several trades, two of which I'll highlight below.

Trade 1: Rafael Furcal and cash considerations traded to Milwaukee Brewers for Mat Gamel - Rafael Furcal misses an early portion of the season with an injury, but returns in time to get traded to Milwaukee at the deadline. The injury almost ensures he will not vest his option for 2012, thus making him a rental on the Brewers behalf. The Dodgers, having fallen out of the race in the NL West, prep for a future possibly without Casey Blake at 3B or James Loney at 1B with the acquisition of former uber-prospect, Mat Gamel. Furcal assumes the leadoff spot in the Brewers lineup and ignites their playoff run in August and September.

Trade 2: Mike Cameron returns to Milwaukee - It was only a year ago when Mike Cameron left Milwaukee for Boston and its greener pastures. Well, a season later and having seemingly fallen out of favor in Boston, Cameron is traded along with cash to to Brewers for relatively unknown prospects. A struggling Carlos Gomez prompts the Brewers to make the move to bring Cameron back for added offense and a playoff push.

A's Make a Splash

I predicted the A's to pull what appears to be a pretty big upset in the AL West. To do so, they may need some help down the stretch. Billy Beane will find another deal at the deadline which will be reminiscent of the early 2000's.

Trade: Aramis Ramirez and cash to Oakland for Kevin Kouzmanoff and a prospect - Injuries will mount for the Cubs and they will slowly trickle away at the trade deadline. Cubs GM Jim Hendry will make an unpopular decision to fold and prepare for the future. He picks up a replacement third baseman for the impending free agent, Aramis Ramirez along with some financial savings and a prospect. Billy Beane nets himself a legitimate middle of the order threat who helps propel the A's into the playoffs.

Tigers Bid for Central

I've got the White Sox winning the AL Central, but I predict the Tigers to make a push for it. I stated (or...at least I think I stated it), that the Tigers have depth issues in their rotation and this will force their hand and make them go out to get themselves a starter.

Trade: Paul Maholm to the Detroit Tigers for prospects - The Pirates trade off yet another veteran in an attempt to gain more prospect depth for their seemingly bright future. The Tigers pad their rotation for the stretch run, but a switch to the AL doesn't suit Maholm very well and he struggles down the stretch assisting in the Tigers shortcomings in the 2011 AL Central race.

Yankees Prep for Life After CC

With CC Sabathia's opt-out decision looming in the offseason and a glaring hole in their rotation which was vacated by a retiring Andy Pettitte, the Yankees will need to acquire pitching help if they have playoff aspirations.

Trade: Francisco Liriano to New York Yankees for prospects Manny Banuelos and Gary Sanchez - Not many may know the names of Banuelos and Sanchez yet, but it certainly is a steep price to pay. Signing Liriano once Sabathia leaves will become top priority for the Yankees in the offseason. Banuelos and Sanchez will give the Twins two uber-prospects they can hang their future hopes on while their current roster carries them into contention year in and year out. Sanchez should allow Mauer to shift to DH in the long term and Banuelos has the potential to be everything Liriano is...and possibly healthier.

2011 Season Predictions

2011-02-28T20:33:00.000-10:00

AL East: Red Sox - The obvious pick to win their division. Their acquisitions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez should be enough to allow them to slug their way into contention. Their rotation which goes 6 or 7 arms deeps should allow them to waltz into the playoffs.

AL Central: White Sox - I picked them because of their depth last season and their depth was not only tested, it was decimated. Each team in their division, including themselves, have glaring strengths and weaknesses. The Twins have the steadiest all around roster, but they have shaky health in key roster spots with Liriano's arm, Mauer's knee and Morneau's head. They'll need those three to stay healthy, I'm not betting on that to happen. The Tigers have the big time offense and the name brand recognition...however, they have rotation depth issues and the shoddiest defense on paper I've ever seen. The ChiSox...despite their shaky health and aging core of offensive veterans, once again seem like the "safe" pick, as silly as that sounds.

AL West: A's - I'll be honest and say I couldn't confidently come to a decision on this one. I've given strong consideration to the Angels, who have forgone offense for defensive prowess and pitching...and the defending AL West champs, the Rangers, who still have the offense and enough on the mound to make some noise. I just felt like going out on a limb, though. The A's have a crew of up-and-coming relievers along with a band of merry misfit pieces on offense. While not one person who is not a fan of the A's (like a friend of mine) or a rabid baseball fan in general (like myself) can name all 9 of the A's projected starters on offense...they have the pieces to keep up with both the Angels and Rangers. This team was built completely under the radar and Billy Beane worked his Moneyball magic once again. Their offense should score enough...it'll just depend on their pitching to do what it should.

AL Wild Card: Yankees - The Yankees have the cash flow and the desperation to keep up with the Red Sox on their side of things. However, they don't have the overall depth to beat them. But they have enough to outrun the rest of the field. It may be close if the AL West is as strong as I think it might be this season...but they're good for a nice lump sum of wins and a playoff spot once again.

NL East: Phillies - A friend of mine said it well last season. "Roy Halladay > Cliff Lee. Simple math to me". So true and he'd probably modify that statement to say something like "Roy Halladay + Cliff Lee = Super Friggin' Awesome". Ok, maybe not. But it's obvious the Phillies have the best namesake rotation since the Braves fielded Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Avery. I do predict one of them gets hurt this year (staring at Cole Hamels or Roy Oswalt), but their rotation is built to make up for that type of hardship. They'll win this division unless something catastrophic (like two season-ending injuries) occurs.

NL Central: Brewers - I had trouble with this division as well. Not so much because I think everyone's good, but because I think everyone's wildly mediocre. Last year's champs, the Reds, decided to spend their offseason locking up their on-roster talent. The Cards spent their offseason dicking around with Albert Pujols only to be blown off...and now they've lost Adam Wainwright. The Cubs...well, despite their big trade for Matt Garza, managed to get older and more injury prone with their re-addition of Kerry Wood. That said, the additions of Greinke and Marcum should allow the Brewers to not only make up ground in that division, but to outlast most of the pretenders down the stretch in a division that may be decided with a total of no more than 85 wins.

NL West: Giants - Last season I said I had a hunch about them and that hunch was right. They won their division and when playoff time came, they just got flat out lucky. That's what baseball is about in that time of year anyway, luck. No one could have predicted cast offs like Burrell and Ross would carry them...but what carried them was the thing that drew my attention last season, their pitching. It's drawn my attention again. That rotation is just brutal top to bottom...and even if Zito is the world's most expensive 5th starter, they feature enough arms to outlast the mediocre NL West. The Dodgers pitching and the Rockies offense may present a couple of problems...but it's nothing the Giants pitching staff can't handle.

NL Wild Card: Braves - I'd bet 90% of baseball enthusiasts would disagree, but I think this one's a no brainer. Sure, I'm a Braves fan...and this is very homerish, but the Braves are good enough to dominate any other division other than the NL East. If it were not for the beastly Phillies, they'd probably win 100 games this year. That said, they will put up a decent fight on the Phils and still manage to crank out a win total in the mid-90's, which should be far and away good enough to outlast even the most surprising of surprises that make a run in late September.

Playoffs - (1 = best record, 2 = 2nd best, 3 = 3rd best, W = Wild Card)

AL Division Series

(1) Boston Red Sox defeat (3) Chicago White Sox - The Sox Series will go to the much stronger Red Sox with impressive offensive outputs and a couple stellar performances from new staff ace, Jon Lester.

(3) Oakland A's defeat (W) New York Yankees - The Yankees age and depth issues become apparent by the pitch-taking tendency of the Oakland A's lineup and the young A's arms show their fire power and shut down the Yankees late in the series.

NL Division Series

(3) Milwaukee Brewers defeat (1) Philadelphia Phillies - The upset of the century. Ok, that's an exaggeration, but weird things happen in the playoffs and the Brewers have the rotation to go toe-to-toe with the Phils. Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum will go 3 on 4 with Halladay/Lee/Oswalt/Hamels and come out the other side alive. Series will be decided when Brad Lidge suffers a relapse to the 2005 playoffs and starts serving up homeruns in close-and-late situations.

(W) Atlanta Braves defeat (2) San Francisco Giants - Atlanta claims their revenge against the Giants from a year before. The Braves pitching, along with new-comer Julio Teheran (who is called up late in the year and claims a bullpen spot for the playoffs) shut down the Giants in the low-scoring series. Things get testy in game 4 as Kimbrel throws a pitch behind Posey's head, but cooler heads prevail and the series goes 5 games with each game being decided by 2 or less runs.

Championship Series

(1) Red Sox defeat (3) A's - Billy Beane is frustrated once again by a bigger budget franchise and screams from his seat "IT'S FUCKING LUCK!" as the Red Sox celebrate after a series win in 6 games.

(W) Braves defeat (3) Brewers - Braves bats come alive after a Greinke shutout in game 1. They batter Gallardo and Marcum then Greinke's anxiety issues become apparent in a ruckus Turner Field in game 4, the pivotal game which swings favor to the Braves 3-1. Tim Hudson returns from a rough game 1 outing to pitch a gem and lead the Braves to the world series.

World Series

Braves defeat Red Sox in 6 games - Yeah, yeah....favoritism to my favorite team. Honest, I'd probably have the Brewers here aside from the second-guessing I have over their "luck". Braves have the tools in place to go all the way this season and they have enough prospect depth to make an under the radar move at the trade deadline that'll boost it's playoff chances. Then....it comes down to something the anti-Moneyball people will dispute; Luck. Freddie Freeman will round into form late in the year and Jason Heyward will break out into a legitimate MVP candidate. The two, alongside McCann, Chipper Jones and Dan Uggla will lead a suddenly potent Braves offense into the world series and outslug the favorite Red Sox.

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez - The "safe" pick. He put up stellar numbers with no support in San Diego. Imagine what he could do with protection all around him. His numbers may get video-game-stupid at some point this season. Darkhorses include Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis and Nelson Cruz.

AL Cy Young: Brett Anderson - Some people will probably cock their heads after reading this and either say "Are you fucking nuts?" or quite possibly even "Who?!". I just got a feeling this'll be his breakout season and with the A's suddenly in contention, the spotlight will turn to the little known Anderson and he'll take the bull by the horns and steal the Cy Young from under CC Sabathia and Jon Lester's noses. Darkhorses include CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, David Price and Brandon Morrow (that's right, Brandon Morrow).

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson - Rays have a bright future and Hellickson will have AL East hitters turning their heads back towards the mound after K's asking "Who the hell was that?" And Jeremy will reply "I'm the Hell Lick, Son". Ok. Lame. But he'll take the Rookie of the Year. Darkhorses include Jake McGee, Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Mitch Moreland (not sure if Moreland still qualifies).

NL MVP: Chase Utley - As much as I'd like to say Heyward breaks through this year, I'll go with a Phillie. The Phils offense will field a couple guys with gaudy numbers, but I think it'll be Utley's well-roundedness that wins him the MVP. While Howard may crank out 50 homeruns, Utley will post a total in the mid-30's with a batting average potentially 50 points higher than Howard. Tossing in 15 steal effort will certainly help as well. Darkhorses include the aforementioned Jason Heyward, as well as Ryan Howard, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols and Buster Posey.

NL Cy Young: Tim Lincecum - Yeah, seems too easy to predict Roy Halladay. I'll go with Big Time Timmy Jim. No real reason. That is all. Darkhorses include Zack Greinke, Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson and Clayton Kershaw.

NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel - The sexy pick for rookie of the years lately have been closers in the AL. Since the AL Rookie of the Year went to a starter, the NL continues the trend being represented by Atlanta's rookie reliever. If he logs 70 innings, he's a lock to reach triple digits in K's. I'd probably go as far as to argue he'd reach 100 K's at 65 innings, but I don't feel like pressing his stats like that. Don't get me wrong. He won't be lights out...and he'll be one of the rockiest rides of any closer in the major leagues, but he's going to make people look stupid at the plate in the process and if he can manage to throw a strike 50% of the time, he'll run away with this award. Darkhorses include Dominic Brown, Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman (yeah...this list is dominated by Braves because they have the next wave of uber-prospects and many other teams have debuted theirs in 2010).

Braves 2011 Lineup: Version BFH

2011-02-19T06:37:00.002-10:00

So it's being discussed everywhere all over the net, I assume. It's also been a topic of discussion between my friend, Matt, and I since before the Braves even acquired Dan Uggla. How would you order your 2011 Atlanta Braves lineup?

Our discussions were mostly focused on where we would bat Heyward and Chipper, but for the most part, there was always discussion about every slot in the order.

If you ask an old school baseball manager, they'll tell you Nate McLouth has the best "lead off" qualities because he is the most likely to steal bases for you on a regular basis. However, McLouth's 2010 struggles and potential power aren't the best fits to the lead off mold.

Computers will tell you, based on different factors, the everyday lineup should have some sort of oddity in it like Chipper or Heyward batting leadoff, etc. However, we all know that is not likely to happen despite the prospect of it being, statistically, the most optimum run-scoring arrangement possible.

That in mind, here's my shot at blending realism with computer-based statistical reasoning.

2B Martin Prado

RF Jason Heyward

3B Chipper Jones

CA Brian McCann

2B Dan Uggla

1B Freddie Freeman

CF Nate McLouth

SS Alex Gonzalez

I'll discuss perhaps the biggest issues most will have with my lineup.

Starting off, Heyward batting 2nd. I know, I know. Heyward should be batting 3rd....or 5th...or 6th...where ever he is better capable of driving in runs, right? Wrong, at least in my opinion. My feeling is, outside of the apparent lunacy of a computer's idea of hitting him in the leadoff spot, you need to get Heyward as many chances to impact a game as possible. To do that, you need to get him as many at-bats as possible. Heyward doesn't get that chance batting 6th, or even 5th in the order. Batting leadoff would be the ideal spot to get Heyward the maximum amount of AB's in any given game, but would also dip into his ability to drive a runner in, as he'd probably be left with scraps hitting behind the pitcher. Placing him behind Prado, who is a capable "lead off" guy in his own rights, would give Heyward a chance to drive in runs while still impacting the rest of the lineup behind him.

The second thing people may have problems with is Chipper still batting third in my lineup. I agree that statistically, he hasn't shown the power to be a 3rd place hitter for several years now. A lot of that can be blamed on injury, but there's no guarantee he regains any power at this point. However, placing him between Heyward (who is likely to be on base 40% of the time or more) and in front of McCann (a respected hitter in his own right) gives Chipper a chance to see some pitches to hit. If the Braves are to succeed in 2011, Chipper needs to rediscover his stroke and he won't do that if pitchers aren't throwing to him. Yet, it's that respect factor I'm willing to play. If the pitchers are willing to walk him with Heyward on in front of him and with McCann and Uggla looming, that'd perfectly fine in my book too.

Then perhaps finally...the 6 through 8 spots. Honest, I don't have a good "reasonable" explanation. It goes against the idea of breaking up the lefties and righties. It goes against the idea of easing a rookie into the lineup. It goes against the idea of putting someone in front of the pitcher who can "turn the lineup over" by getting on base. However, here's the theory I am employing...and it's unorthodox in a sense. I'm banking on McLouth's power potential to backup Freeman. I'm also banking on that power potential to make him more useful than an 8th place hitter. As faulty as that is, it's no worse than any other idea at this point, in my opinion.

Freeman should provide a solid batting average with a decent on-base percentage this season. He should also supply an average amount of power. His ability to make contact would probably be best suited to backup the power in our lineup. With guys on in front of him, he should be able to drive them in with some sort of ball in play. Or...at least that would be the intended purpose.

McLouth, perhaps, may be the most boom or bust player in our lineup this season. Perhaps the entire season rides on McLouth's ability to rebound from a horrid 2010 campaign. If McLouth's power comes around, he could clear the bases. If it doesn't, we may see Alex Gonzalez leading off a lot of innings...which could be a very bad thing for us. McLouth, no doubt, is the wild card in our deck of cards.

Finally, there's Alex Gonzalez. Mr. Swingy, I shall call him. If there is any type of "black hole" in our 2011 lineup, I'm going to go out on a nice sturdy limb and say it'll be Gonzalez. While he did put up a strong 2010 season, he still only posted a .294 on-base percentage. The purpose of batting him 8th is not so much to hide that on-base percentage, but to improve it. Hitting in front of the pitcher with, hopefully, players on base ahead of him will either make his aggressiveness more useful....or opposing pitchers' willingness to pitch around him will make him more patient. Or, you know...somewhere in the middle where his aggressiveness on a pitcher' willingness to pitch around him will make him even more of a free out. We'll focus on the positive, though. If pitchers are pitching around Gonzalez, his OBP only stands to improve. He may not post a .350 mark, but .325 could certainly be in reach if the suspected theory plays out as I'd hope it would...which, in the long term, helps the team win.

State of the Braves: Starting Pitching 2011

2011-02-12T10:49:00.001-10:00

So, with pitchers and catchers due to report in just a couple of days, I figured it would be a good time to finally take a look at the off-season as a whole and give everyone an assessment of just where we stand.

I suppose there is no better place than to start with our obvious strength which is starting pitching. On the hill, we feature the deepest rotation depth of any team in the major leagues...you know, if your franchise's name isn't Red Sox. Outside of the deep-pocketed Beantowners, the Braves boast probably the best organizational depth at the starting pitching level. Very few franchises can lay claim to having a starting rotation that is 4 solid veterans deep, and the ones that can claim that...can't boast that they have a trio of options for their 5th slot, along with an up-and-coming unanimous top prospect waiting in the wings.

Tim Hudson (right) discusses strategy with catcher
Brian McCann (left) - Credit to Lauren T @ Braves Love

We'll begin at the front of the rotation where, 2010 Comeback Player of the Year, Tim Hudson returned from Tommy John surgery in 2009 and posted 17 wins along with a career-best ERA of 2.83. This, perhaps, came at a perfect time. Considering the questions of some of the fan base for extending his contract at age 34, Tim's performance has eased concerns of those who questioned how he'd age as a pitcher. This also marks the first time since his arrival 6 years ago which he has truly delivered on the "ace" billing. The argument that Hudson was not the pitcher we thought we acquired from Oakland has now been squashed. As an ace, Hudson leaves little to be desired and if the rotation is to hold together, Hudson will be the one leading the way.

Behind Tim, we potentially have the most exciting and electric right-handed arm since John Smoltz's early years in Atlanta, Tommy Hanson. At the still tender age of 23, he helped anchor a solid Braves rotation which finished 4th in runs allowed in the majors in 2010. Don't be fooled by his pedestrian 10-11 record, Hanson showed innate ability to not only miss bats, but to prevent hits altogether. He posted stellar H/9 and HR/9 totals and for a young power pitcher even put up a pretty ridiculous 2.5 BB/9. It's no secret that most of all people thought we had something special with Hanson, but it's just amazing that we know his 2010 output is no where near the limits of his potential. With a full year finally under his belt and there being no question about his durability, Hanson will team with Hudson to form one of the game's top one-two punches.

Jair Jurrjens warms up in the outfield pregame
Credit to Lauren T @ Braves Love

Sliding down to the third spot in the rotation, we feature a pitcher who was thought to be our ace headed into the 2010 season. Jair Jurrjens, despite my general lack of belief in his abilities, had a banner year in 2009 before succumbing to knee and shoulder issues in 2010. The shoulder issues raise a mighty red flag over him in my books, but if he is truly over it (which is obviously the hope) there's no denying that he's a stellar option to have backing up your big two. I've told many that Jurrjens does very little to catch your eye, however it's the little things he does within at-bats and during games that make you realize his value. While he doesn't pound the strikezone like Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson tend to do, Jurrjens knows that his stuff probably isn't good enough to just pound the zone with. He'll go after the "sure outs" and force the better hitters to get themselves out on pitcher's pitches. It seems silly and simple when typed or said aloud, but that's the beauty of it all. Jurrjens is, in the truest sense, a smart pitcher...and smart pitchers, even without their best stuff, usually get by with acceptable, if not good, results.

Moving further down the rotation, we have the last of our veterans and the most "veteran" of the group. Derek Lowe, at 37 years of age, is easily the most senior member of the 2011 rotation. Once considered to be a front of the rotation starter, he has quickly regressed to a back of the rotation type since joining Atlanta in 2009. While he was pretty terrible in 2009, his 2010 was more unimpressive than bad. Yet, when you look at Lowe by his 2010 stats, it's not hard to imagine him being similar in 2011. While many will point to the $15M we are paying him for the season and say he's a waste of money and oxygen, the rotation wouldn't be quite as formidable without him. If the price to pay for near 200 innings, an ERA around 4 and a chance to win over 50% of one's starts is $15M...then it shall be paid...and worried about next year.

Mike Minor's rookie hazing -
Credit to Lauren T @ BravesLove

This is where the Braves begin to separate themselves from other "deep" rotations. Where other franchises may claim the ability to call a starting pitcher deserving of a middle-rotation slot their 5th starter, most fail to present a myriad of options for that 5th slot. Not only do we flaunt 3 potential 5th starters to compete for the job in spring...we feature two prospects, Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy, who are supposedly ready right now, each having middle of the rotation potential. Even if all is to go wrong and the lone "veteran journeyman", Rodrigo Lopez, were to win the spot...we could do much worse, like paying a Bronson Arroyo $12M more for similar production, according to Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs. In each of these starters, the Braves possess the ability to compensate for the loss of someone higher up in the depth chart. Not to say they will all pitch like aces, but each should be capable of temporarily filling a rotation spot for a string of starts if the need arises. The "losers" of the battle in spring will be pushed back to Gwinnett, waiting their next opportunity to pitch at the big league level...and that doesn't include the most intriguing name on the spring training list.

Julio Teheran
Credit through AJC.com to AP

After discussing the merits of a rotation that runs 7 starters deep, the Braves hold one last trump card. That trump card's name: Julio Teheran. He will be just 20 years old in 2011, but he has rocketed through the Braves farm system to this point. Consistently playing against competition several years older than himself, Teheran has done nothing but dominate opposing hitters. He will likely begin the year alongside the two starters who lose out on the 5th slot in the rotation in spring to form one of the more dominant minor league rotations in Gwinnett.

No other team, aside from the Red Sox, can say they run 8 starters deep. None other. In the regular season, pitching is the name of the game...and the Braves have the most of it. They are built to fight through adversity. They are built to dominate if they are all healthy. We thought the previous two years were fun to watch....but I'd like to argue, that once again, the Braves rotation will improve significantly.

Braves bench and faith in humanity

2011-02-08T17:48:00.004-10:00

Perhaps I have too much faith in humanity.

For the entire winter, since Omar Infante was traded in a package to acquire Dan Uggla, I have been operating my personal spreadsheets with the assumption that our bench, having acquired Joe Mather and resigned David Ross and Eric Hinske, would be operating just an utility player down. Diory Hernandez is on the 40-man, and not that he is the greatest solution, he would suffice with his ability to provide defense at all infield positions outside of first base.

The discussion should have been done. Or so I thought.

Maybe it's just boredom of an off-season and the lack of things to talk about, but I've seen a few people around the web who are of the opinion that Brooks Conrad had played himself out of Atlanta with his glove work in the Division series last October.

Furthermore, they go on to suggest that Joe Mather may be incapable of holding down the 4th outfielder role all on his own and suggest that the last bench spot ahead of Diory Hernandez's utility role belongs to one of Jordan Schafer or Matt Young rather than Brooks Conrad.

I've even seen one instance where Brooks Conrad was not even mentioned in passing in a discussion about one person's opinion of the bench. Blasphemy. Pure blasphemy.

I'm not condoning that Brooks Conrad should be off the hook for his poor defensive performance in the playoffs. Defense is just something he'll have to work on if he wants to truly becomes a formidable bench piece. However, we are not to damn him for poor defensive ability...especially when we are in dire need of replacing Omar Infante and his vast array of abilities.

That said, I've said to several people that the task of replacing Omar Infante is really not that complicated at all. It sure is tough to find guys who can come off the bench cold and get a hit in a tight spot...but it's not THAT hard. You can sift through rosters across the majors and find yourself .700-.750 OPS guys to come off your bench. In fact, utilizing Brooks Conrad just for his bat DOES replace Infante. His .301 BABIP suggests that his 2010 stats are just about where they should be. He was neither lucky nor unlucky and that led to a .237 IsoP and an .811 OPS. In conjunction with that, Brooks Conrad also does the one thing that this lefty-heavy starting squad desperately needs; he hits left-handers (.278/.366/.444 in 2010).

The greater challenge is, in fact, to replace Omar's defensive flexibility. Short of going out and spending money on it, which we did not have the liberty of doing, the task is two-fold. First you must replace his ability to play across the outfield, then you need to replace his ability to play across the infield.

Bringing in Joe Mather over Matt Diaz was step 1. Matt Diaz, while a lefty-killer, was incapable of playing anywhere other than left field. Sure...he could serve as an emergency rightfielder, first baseman and catcher, but really...if you had him playing there, it's an emergency and you've got bigger issues to worry about. Bringing in Mather, whose ability to play clear across the outfield grants us that flexibility to carry just one true backup outfielder. It also doesn't hurt that Mather could toss on a first baseman's mitt in a pinch if the need called for it. If Mather were to fail miserably, I'd imagine Matt Young, Jordan Schafer, or even an NRI like Brent Clevlen to be next in line. Besides...if any of the 4th outfielder options is playing centerfield on a regular basis, you have to admit that the problem really isn't the backup centerfielder, it's that Nate McLouth is forcing Gonzalez to play a 4th outfielder in his stead.

The second challenge was to replace Omar's flexibility across the infield...which is where Brooks Conrad is incapable. That task, I was hoping, would be resolved by an acquisition such as a Brendan Ryan (who plays SUPERB defense), but Diory Hernandez's ability to play the same positions for a fraction of the price is just as well a solution considering our financial constraints. If it isn't Diory, Ed Lucas is also a possibility, so I've been told.

So forget about things you may read regarding Braves' bench projections that blow off Brooks Conrad so recklessly. The Braves have plans for Conrad to be part of the bench...and I am sure they knew his limitations all along (having been forced to play him because of injuries to Chipper and Martin Prado). The Braves bench is more or less set...unless someone wants to waltz into spring training and outplay Diory by a large margin. David Ross, Eric Hinske, Joe Mather, Brooks Conrad and Diory Hernandez will be your opening day bench in 2011. No if's, and's, or but's about it.

New year, New BFH, New focus

2011-02-06T20:18:00.000-10:00

Yet again, things were not stable in the life of BFH. Troubles with yet another boss and their personal desires put me in an emotional rut much throughout the end of 2010 just as I was about to start talking about some baseball again.

Fact of the matter is that I no longer really desire to deal with petty arguments that are miscast and labeled as "discussions" in forums. My heart will always belong to ChopNation.com and the folks over there, but I just don't feel like having my ideas and hours of research dissected in mere minutes only to be countered with a personal opinion which I had ruled out hours ago based on multiple sources of statistical evidence.

That said, I really only will be posting here for the handful (if that) people who know about this blog. Don't let the above statement deter you from replying or disagreeing. I'm all for discussion regarding the pluses and minuses of my research...but I do request it's done in a well-thought and educated manner; especially if you are expecting me to reply for discussion.

Anyway....enough bitching and moaning from me. Time for a bit of story time.

Just about 5 years ago, I was a wide-eyed 21-year old kid. Despite having been to Las Vegas several times in my life prior to turning 21 several months earlier, this was the first instant in which I'd be there eligible to gamble. Of course, like any other rabid sports fan....the natural urge was to place a futures bet; in my case, a World Series futures bet. The only question was: 'What team?'.

Well, I'll just spare you details of how long it took me to decide...but I, like many fans of a team, placed my bet on my team, the Atlanta Braves. What most don't know about this little story was that I spent hours and hours of every night for several weeks prior to the trip analyzing the off-season and depth charts of all 30 teams across the Major Leagues.

I had a theory. A theory that was somewhat developed after reading Moneyball. In the book, Billy Beane was basically quoted as saying that the playoffs were a crapshoot and that the only thing he could do as a general manager was to get his team there. Once his team had qualified, it came down to one factor; that factor being luck. The theory was based off that idea. Since it was about getting lucky in the playoffs....it wasn't exactly about accurately picking the "best team" to win in the playoffs. But if the point was not to accurately pick the "best team" in an attempt to make a winning bet, what was it?

The point was to pick out the division winners (and a potential wild card) strategically, through the process of statistical research, eliminate teams based on various factors. Step one was to create spreadsheets of each team's roster in specific segments of the game. Specifically they were starting pitching, relief pitching, starting roster.

The theory in a whole was that (like Beane thought) the most you could do to prep your team to win in the long run of a regular season and in the playoffs is a minimum of 3 good starting pitchers. Based on that, if a team did not have enough starting pitching they would easily be eliminated from playoff contention. Under this presumption, 50% or more of the league can be counted out...therefore narrowing YOUR odds of selecting a World Series winner.

After eliminating the pretenders, the second spreadsheet featured starting position players. Not that it was entirely scientific (aside from looking at projections and historical decline, etc), but based on a team's starting lineup...you could tell if they would be able to score more runs than their pitching staff would allow. Based on another theory I learned of from Moneyball, run differential, seeing the offense would give me half of the equation I'd heavily rely on to predict the amount of wins a team would come away with.

The third spreadsheet listed the contenders' bullpens top to bottom. Given the ability to view each contenders' entire pitching staff allowed me to estimate the other half of the run differential equation. Using statistics and some gut feeling, I was able to generally give myself a better-than-basic knowledge of each team's bullpen's strength combined with the division and league they were in.

Having these three pieces, I began to whittle away teams from my list and by the time I boarded Hawaiian Airlines flight 8, direct to Las Vegas, I had a list of 3 AL teams and 4 NL teams that I liked; Yankees, Tigers, Angels, Braves, Padres, Astros and Cardinals. To make an already long story shorter, I advanced the Tigers from the AL to my pretend World Series and of course made my "homer" pick in the Braves in the NL.

Luckily in my case...the Tigers fell to the Cardinals in the World Series saving me the embarrassment of telling people I missed out on 50-to-1 payout because I was a "homer".

Story time drawing to a close...I'll be in Vegas again in just over 2 weeks now. I've begun preliminary research on my spreadsheets and I've been able to eliminate nearly 50% of the teams around the majors based on starting pitching alone.

The top 3 things I have noticed during my research are as follows:

The Red Sox are scary deep. Not only do they feature Daisuke Matsuzaka as a 5th starter, they have about 4 guys in the bullpen and in the minors who could step in on a moment's notice and pitch quality baseball for them if any starter were to hit the DL.
If the Phillies go through with the concept of trading Joe Blanton in an attempt to shave some money off their payroll figures, they are one injury away from going from a rotation that's "wicked good" to merely just "good". While it's not a death sentence, it makes them beatable if things don't go as planned.
The NL Central is not as strong as people like to think it is...and the Brewers with a front three of Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum could really make some noise and turn some heads.

That is all for now. We'll see you later when the research is further along.

Post-Game Thoughts: Goodbye Sweet Lou, Hulk Heyward, and more

2010-08-22T11:24:00.008-10:00

Great career from Lou Piniella and best wishes to him in life after baseball...

...but I am happy to say the following line.

BOOYAAAAA!

In all seriousness, though. The Braves come away with another series win today after thoroughly beating the Cubs into submission, 16-5. The severe beating we laid on the Cubs in Sweet Lou's send off tickles me in happy places, but the greatest feeling is that after yet another strong week from the Phillies strong surge...we still remain 2.5 games ahead of them in the NL East. If we keep taking 2 of 3...the division is ours. If the Phillies can post a better record than that the remainder of the year...they can have the division. I'd be confident that we can take them as a wild card in the playoffs if needed.

Great to see Heyward step up his power today, especially with the wind apparently blowing in according to MLB.com's Gameday. There was growing concern within me that Heyward, despite time on the DL to heal up, was still having problems with his thumb because of the overall lack of power he was showing since his return. So, so awesome to see Heyward pump some muscle into his swing today and pop two homeruns out of Wrigley.

Infante's also proving to be a God-send and his bane continues to be the fact that he's our only backup shortstop that is worth a darn. Much respect to Diory Hernandez, but Diory is no Infante. I've been questioned many a time why I refuse to admit that Infante is starter-worthy and I keep going back to the flexibility that Omar brings to the table and how dangerous he can be off the bench in a tight spot. Infante's doing everything within his power to convince me otherwise. Keep proving me wrong, Omar. I'll start shopping for crow if you help lead us to a World Series title. hehe

On to Peter Moylan. I said at Chop Nation that I do like him...and from all acounts I hear from Lauren T., author of Braves Love, and other sources closer to the action than I am, Pete is a great guy and a joy to be around. But wow. He came in to get some work in against the Cubs in the blowout and really got his butt kicked. Ok, so maybe 1 inning, 3 hits and two runs isn't exactly the definition of getting your butt handed to you....but this has really become a recurrent theme for Moylan in 2010. If it's not the inability to prevent hits on some days/nights...it's been his sketchy control. As sad as it is for me to say, I think I might be on the right track in my previous post with the idea of cashing in on his value now before we really get stuck between his arbitration status and inconsistent performance.

Finally on the docket. Mike Minor. Yikes. I know I defended the Braves feverishly a year ago when we drafted him so early in the first round and gave him an over slot signing bonus to boot...but wow. 12 K's? Really? I've had two friends already IM me with reactions of varying astonishment over the performance today against the Cubbies. Quite impressive for someone who, just over a year ago, was pitching in college games only dreaming of earning a major league paycheck. Good for you, Mike. Keep up the good work out there. With all honesty, my friends as well as myself, we all know that Mike's performance today is likely not the status quo on what Minor is all about. However, I can't help but think the Braves made the absolute best choice they possibly could. They got a gritty kid with polished stuff whose ceiling, while not limitless, keeps inching higher with each passing appearance. I'm definitely excited to see what he can do, but I also know that he's the future of the pitching staff alongside Tommy Hanson and I do hope the Braves don't push the kid too hard down the stretch. Something to keep in mind is Kenshin Kawakami is on the same start-schedule as Minor...so we could eventually see the return of Kenshin (perhaps to re-establish trade value for the winter) and the limiting of workload for Minor down the stretch. Regardless of how the Braves handle the situation, we are being setup for a HUGE run into the end of August and through September.

Go Braves.

BFH signing out.

BFH's GM Hot Seat, Vol. I (2011)

2010-08-20T22:15:00.006-10:00

This may be the first of many, to be honest. I normally hold off on these until the off-season...but perhaps it's something about winning that puts me in the mood of thinking about the future.

Not saying I'm looking past this season, as the Braves have given me a lot of reason to be happier from a day-to-day basis, but like any proper wanna-be-GM while you keep one eye on the present and one eye on the past to learn from your mistakes...you must also keep one eye (yes, you need three eyes to be a wanna-be-GM, gosh darn it) fixed on the future.

With that in mind, I have created my first roster projection for the off-season...in the middle of August.

For those who are unfamiliar with my roster projections, I like to try and realistically put together combinations of trades/free agent signings using the Braves' players and prospects in order to meet a projected budget of $90M (or whatever the organization claims it to be from year to year). Rules are simple...there really aren't any in regards to who you acquire or trade for other than to make it as realistic as possible. Ex: I try to put myself in the shoes of the other general manager. That means the Cardinals are not going to trade you Albert Pujols or Matt Holliday for Derek Lowe and Jordan Schafer.

With all that said, here is my first GM Hot Seat for the 2011 season. Format for all (or most, I should say) will list free agent signings first, followed by trades and an "assumptions" area where assumptions like winners of position battles are listed, then the 25-man roster along with a brief summation of the whole thing.

Free Agent Signings

Re-sign Eric Hinske; 1-year, $1.75M

I was thrilled when the Braves signed him last year. Not because I knew about his "lucky charm" qualities, but because I had him listed as 1 of 2 left-handed hitters I really wanted the Braves to get. Ultimately, I don't view Hinske as some kind of savior or an integral part to our success or failures...but I do view him as a valuable veteran presence and a competent pinch hitter. He signed for $1M with $500K in attainable incentives and giving him a slight raise on that (with some of it cuffed to easily attainable incentives) should be enough to keep him in Atlanta for another year.

Sign J.J. Putz; 1-year, $6.5M with an option for 2012 ($6M or a $500K buyout)

Putz has been on my radar from early in the season when his dominance began in Chicago. He's returned to the form he was in during his days in Seattle pre-injury, but he obviously still needs to prove his health some. JJ Putz may certainly get more on the free agent market in terms of years, but right now the market for relievers is saturated and many relievers will be finding themselves accepting below market deals for better roles. Putz may come to Atlanta for a chance to close and allowing him to have a similar contract to the one that brought Wagner to Atlanta may be enough to lure him down south. The first year will be a $6M maximum salary (perhaps some of it incentive-based) and the $500K is in reference to the $500K buyout). The option will automatically vest with 50 games finished and part of his salaries will be tied to appearances. If it helps bring him to Atlanta, I'd also stick on escalators in 2011 that would raise the amount of his vesting option up to $7.5M. Best of all, JJ Putz is unlikely to finish strong enough to attain Type A status. Regardless of whether the Chicago White Sox offer him arbitration or not, he comes to Atlanta free of draft pick compensation from our end.

Sign Magglio Ordonez; 1-year, $8M

I used the Johnny Damon deal as a basis for this one. Old outfielder, Boras client. Apparent ability to hit for average and play average defense. Magglio is only a recent addition to the 2011 free agent market because of his broken ankle that will cause him to miss out on his vesting option with the Tigers. It's highly possible the Tigers may try to re-sign him as a free agent...but Magglio may like the chance of getting out of a pitcher's park into a more neutral one to post some big numbers in the middle of an offense that should be pretty darn good with his name plugged into the middle of it.

I'd stop short of a no-trade clause, of couse...but giving him a base salary of around $6-6.5M with incentives based on plate appearances should convince him to come down south as well.

Sign Martin Prado; 4-year extension, $25.5M with a club option for 2015 ($10M or a $500K buyout)

Yes, I'm completely aware that this isn't a free agent signing. Thanks for the concern. I do, however, think it is a great idea to approach Prado with this type of contract extension, though. This one slightly mimics the 5-year, $22M that Kinsler got with just two years of service time. Also keep in mind that Kinsler's first year in that contract paid him $500K, so it was somewhat close to the one I'm proposing for Prado at 3 years of service time.

Prado will be arbitration eligible and his salary may reach $3.5M with ease in the winter. The suggestion calls for overpaying that amount in 2011 and giving him $4.5M as a good faith payment in exchange for a likely bigger cost savings later in the deal.

2011 - $4.5M
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $7M
2014 - $8M (Would-be free agent year)
2015 - $10M or $500K buyout

The contract would eat up his 3 arbitration years plus a year of free agency and give the Braves an option to keep him in what would be his 2nd free agency year. The suggestion also includes the 2015 option become guaranteed if Prado is to finish in the top 3 of an MVP vote sometime during the duration of his contract. This gives Prado a say in the contract becoming maximized at 5-years and $35M by way of excellent play during his tenure with the Braves.

Non-tenders

Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera

Melky may not be a surprise to any, but Diaz will be. Honest to God, neither have done enough for me this season to convince me that they are going to be worth their likely arbitration pay days. Melky's general lack of useful offense and Diaz's lack of offensive flexibility (lesser-side of a platoon) make both easy considering the near $7M cost savings that would be realized by giving both of them their release.

Trades

Derek Lowe and $14M ($7M in 2011, $7M in 2012) to Los Angeles Dodgers

This one's not really about who we get in return. The return is so insignificant that I'm not even bothering to find a C-prospect in the Dodgers system to take. This is about handing off Lowe to someone who could use him and realizing an $16M savings ($8M in each season).

The Dodgers are returning a rotation of Kershaw, Billingsley and...well, Ely. Bottom line is they could use a starting pitcher and Derek Lowe provides them a familiar name with a price tag that's easier to swallow than the one Lowe originally spurned them to get. Lowe might dislike the Dodgers and they him...but when it comes down to it, Lowe realized some of his best years there and it might be an ease to his ADHD-riddled mind to head back to a safety haven that brought him such success.

Acquire Dan Wheeler from Tampa Bay Rays for Mike Dunn and the prospect we get from Lowe

This one might be a head scratcher to some. Why acquire a middle reliever when we've already got lots of middle relief depth? Why not aim higher at a setup man for the newly acquire JJ Putz?

Well, the first reason is the emergence of Jonny Venters. He's proving capable of handling the 8th inning role, as well as perhaps the closer role. The only reason I opted to bring in Putz was for the veteran presence at the back end of the bullpen that would be missing with Venters. As good as Venters is, I'd actually like to have him available in any tight spot before the 9th.

In addition to that, Wheeler is having himself a pretty darn solid season in Tampa. He'd bring stability to the middle innings and give our new manager in 2012 a reliable veteran arm which has been a poster boy for consistency since 2008.

The Rays are in a tight spot with Wheeler. Their entire bullpen is vacating because of free agency or non-tender and Wheeler may be the only remaining reliever that they are able to retain. So why would they trade him? To get a major league ready reliever back that they can retain. Michael Dunn can step into a middle inning role and allow JP Howell a greater role in his return from injury. It'd also save the Rays $4M...or $1M if they chose to decline his option and paired with money they paid for Soriano and the likely departure of Carl Crawford, they'll have some spare change to get some work done on their bullpen in a saturated market that is bound to turn up some bargains like the one that gave them Joaquin Benoit for a bargain price.

Acquire Drew Stubbs and Micah Owings from Cincinnati Reds for Peter Moylan and a top 20 prospect

I'm expecting a big backlash from this suggestion. People love Moylan...and the God honest truth is that I like him a lot too. However, I do have major concerns over who the role Peter Moylan is and I fear that despite his overall bad season in 2010, any improvement may not be significant enough to help him realize his earlier days in a Braves uniform. Surely the Reds will salivate over Moylan's ability to keep the ball on the ground and they may even be willing to upgrade their offer to Chris Heisey instead. Either way, Stubbs or Heisey should be a welcomed addition to the roster as a 4th outfielder. Each have the ability to play centerfield and the corner spots. Stubbs has 40-steal speed and 15-20 HR power while Heisey has the more all-around game on offense minus the base-runner speed.

The Reds are in an interested log jam with 5 outfielders on the roster and one of these two may likely be the odd men out. Giving the Reds a much needed bullpen arm allows us to trade from out depth to gain something we sorely need. Stubbs should be able to push Nate McLouth to perform. If Nate refuses to hit...then Stubbs can easily step in and at least upgrade us on offense.

Micah Owings was recently designated for assignment by the Reds. It may be a pipe dream to get him in the off-season since he might be moved before then. However, he'd be able to step in and take a long relief role in the bullpen for a minimal cost to the Braves. He'd also provide us with excellent depth for the rotation and perhaps even a spare pinch hitter if we needed one.

25-man Roster

Tim Hudson

Jair Jurrjens

Tommy Hanson

Kenshin Kawakami

Mike Minor

Micah Owings

Craig Kimbrel

Stephen Marek

Eric O'Flaherty

Dan Wheeler

Jonny Venters

JJ Putz

Brian McCann

Freddie Freeman

Martin Prado

Chipper Jones

Alex Gonzalez

Magglio Ordonez

Nate McLouth

Jason Heyward

David Ross

Drew Stubbs

Brooks Conrad

Eric Hinske

Omar Infante

Total payroll approx. $90.192M

Project lineup:

2B Martin Prado

RF Jason Heyward

3B Chipper Jones

LF Magglio Ordonez

CA Brian McCann

SS Alex Gonzalez

1B Freddie Freeman

CF Nate McLouth

Overall, I like this roster a lot. The bench remains deep and flexible. The lineup is deep and more powerful than the one we started 2010 with. The bullpen also features similar depth and talent to the one we feature right at this moment. Kenshin gets to regain some of his honor by rejoining the rotation as a back of the rotation starter...this time perhaps having the luxury of being expected to be a 5th starter and not having so many idiots bash him for the offense scoring -3 runs per each of his starts.

State of the Braves

2008-07-22T18:31:00.003-10:00

DISCLAIMER: If you are a true optimist, or are hopeful of the Braves to make a comeback reminiscent of years during our decade and a half sodomization of the NL East/West and do not want to see an opinion as to why this season is lost and why we are not a true contender in 2008, please stop reading now.

Ok...so I was going to originally post this in the thread started by argentina about still believing in the team this year, because this little writeup showcases how I feel about the Braves chances for the stretch run, but I realized it will come off as extremely negative and I didn't want to drag down the overall morale boost that is present in that thread. While I still hope and think that the Braves could finish the season strong with what they currently have, I just think there is too much stacked up against them this season to hope for a post-season run.

So, I've been having discussions with several other Braves fans about the Braves recently, and most are guardedly optimistic that this team will formulate some kind of strong showing prior to the July 31st non-waivers trade deadline. With a strong showing, we could climb back to within several games of the NL East lead and then make a move to tie up some loose ends for the stretch run. While it could happen that way, I'm not sure how realistic one is when assuming that such a comeback is in the cards for the Braves in 2008.

It's not just one thing, you know? It’s just a whole damn slew of crap that’s been plaguing the Braves in 2008; injuries, ineffectiveness in all facets of the game, mismanagement of the personnel and roster, in-game mismanagement, and just flat out bad luck. If it’s not one thing, it’s been another...and no one thing can really explain what’s happened to this team over the course this season.

Though, if there is one thing that sticks out in my mind, it’s been the performance of our beloved Braves since June 4, 2008. You may ask: “Why not take into consideration the first 3 days of June?” After all, we normally do have piss poor performances in June. So what is the significance of that specific date? Well, that’s the day that John Smoltz held his press conference and admitted that he was not Superman, and that he would not be able to continue pitching through the excruciating amount of pain he was in. Now…I’m not blaming Smoltz, and I’d like to be VERY clear about that. I’m not even blaming the Braves for being shell shocked and heart broken after Smoltz told the world that his season was done.

However, I am disappointed that this Braves team, even with Smoltz’s presence on the bench, hasn’t responded by picking up the slack for a fallen brother. While waiting for Smoltz to become healthy, the Braves were 31-28, threading water almost on talent alone. Since Smoltzie’s press conference, the Braves are 9 games under .500, posting a 16-25 record coming to rest at the 47-53 they are currently at. That mark also includes a 2-2 record against the Marlins, 0-6 (two 3-game sweeps) from the Phillies, and a 1-2 mark versus the lowly Nationals who seemingly have our damn number this season.

Call it what you must; lack of heart, injuries catching up to us, mismanagement, or bad luck, this season hasn’t been kind to the Braves. Expecting the Braves to make a miraculous comeback to jump 3 teams ahead of them would be quite a sight to see, and I really do hope they do it, because I really could use some smile and laughter in regards to my baseball life nowadays.

But…at the same time, I am not going to optimistically hope that fate will allow us to get back into this race. Expecting more than another disappointing stretch run would be expecting everything to go absolutely right in a season in which everything thus far has gone almost absolutely wrong.

Let’s go Braves. Go Braves, indeed.

More Speculation: Starting Pitching

2008-06-06T10:46:00.009-10:00

Ok, so we're inching closer to the all-star break and eventually the trading deadline, and I'm the type that likes to think of crazy scenarios and trade speculations. So here I am with a little bit of speculation as to some starting pitching the Braves might be looking into.

You may be sitting there wondering why the Braves would wish to add more starting pitching. After all, (despite the loss of Smoltz) the Braves are 2nd in the national league in starting pitching ERA, Jorge Campillo has been a hit (ironic...since he hasn't been allowing many hits) sensation as a starter, and Jo-Jo Reyes has taken positive steps in his development as a major league starter. Well, one problem is the innings pitched per start. Prior to tonight's game, the Braves' starters have accumulated 337.2 innings, good for 13th in the NL. Another issue is that the depth that we boasted prior to the season has all but been demolished due to injuries to Smoltz and Hampton and ineffectiveness of Chuck James.

Regardless of mishaps and misfortunes, the starters have averaged 5.54 IP per start. It ain't horrible...but yet, it is. Beyond Hudson (6.44 IP/GS) and Jurrjens (5.87 IP/GS) the next best mark is set by Smoltz (5.4 IP/GS) and Jo-Jo Reyes (5.38 IP/GS). Yes, that's right...our 3rd and 4th best innings eaters are a guy who is out for the season and a rookie 5th starter. Glavine sits at 5.12 IP per start, James at 4.6, and Bennett at 4.89 and Campillo at 4.75 get a free pass

because of their swing-man roles thus far. That's a big drop-off.

So we need an innings-eater. Not necessarily an ace, because we've got that role covered by Hudson, and Jair Jurrjens has shown the guts and grit that only the league's elite pitchers seem to have...but just an innings-eater. Someone middle-tier, nothing flashy, but just someone good enough to give us quality starts on a regular basis. The person I've targeted for the purposes of this article, Brian Bannister.

He seems to fit the mold of what the Braves are said to be looking for; a young starting pitching that they can retain beyond the next season and a half. After the season, Bannister will be 28 years old and have just over 2 years of major league service and is not slated to become a free agent until after the 2012 season. He is also an innings eater, averaging 6.07 innings per start in his career. On top of all that, he's mildly effective with a career 4.12 ERA and 1.265 WHIP. Like I said before: "Nothing flashy, but someone just good enough to give us quality starts on a regular basis."

The Royals need offense...badly. They will probably want to load up with younger players through any trade of a starting pitcher. It was suggested over at Chop Nation that the price tag for a pitcher like Zack Greinke would be Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge AND a starting pitcher like Charlie Morton, so what would it take to get a pitcher of a lower caliber like Bannister? Would Jones and/or Lillibridge be enough? Would they have interest in Scott Thorman? Or even Clint Sammons or Diory Hernandez for that matter? If we don't have to give up any young pitching or Jordan Schaefer, I'd chalk it up to be a good deal. Any prospects better than those listed...well, we'd probably want to second-guess how much we really want him. After all, Dayton has to make him available in the first place.

Smoltz done for the season, possibly career?

2008-06-06T10:40:00.002-10:00

Ok...so this post is a bit after the fact, but I was an emotional wreck after learning of Smoltz' fate. He'll have season-ending shoulder surgery, and depending on how much damage there is and how much rehab it will take, he may possibly be done for his career. Despite his insistence that he'll do everything physically possible to return in '09, it's just not encouraging when even he doesn't know how badly he's hurt. The fact that he's pitched with this shoulder pain for two seasons already isn't a good sign, and I just hope for the best for him and his family at this point.

If this is really the end, I'd like to thank you, John. For everything.

Heart

2008-05-31T16:43:00.003-10:00

Ok…so I went for a walk, and I did clear my head a bit, but the Braves lackluster play on the road still bothers me so much so that I just need to write a bit of a rant to blow off the last bit of a steam in me.

I know I’ve been quieter around here than I have been in a long time. There are a couple reasons for it, though. The first reason was because of school and final exams a couple of weeks back. I’m sure most of everyone understands the stress and irritability that comes along with exams, so I don’t think much needs to be explained for this segment of this little write up.

The second reason has been the Braves themselves. It may sound a bit counterintuitive, as you’d think I’d be around more to bitch and moan about the Braves road woes, but as negative as some have been around here, I have to say that I feel I would have made the overall negative aura worse by tenfold. Just as an example of how infuriated I become over this team and its road performances, just the other day…I threw a half-full bottle of Gatorade across my room, and I have no flippin’ idea where the heck it went. I’m just hoping I won’t find it 3 months from now looking like a 5th grade science project.

So, yeah…maybe I do have rage issues. I’m working on that. Really. I am. But at the same time, the Braves don’t make it easy for me to control my anger. Heck, I remember at the start of the season, I shrugged my shoulders on most of the Braves losses and said something along the lines of “Eh, bad luck” or “Eh, they just played better than us tonight.” It’s just become…too frequent. With each loss (especially on the road) where there have been a bad breaks, or bad calls that seemingly lead to our demise, it’s just become too hard to believe that this is just bad luck. 7-20 on the road this season, 0 for the last 20 or so on the road that have been decided by 1 run. It’s even greater than just some “bad f’n juju” as I described it at the beginning of today’s game thread at Chop Nation.

I discussed it briefly with bravestud at the end of that same game thread, and I said that it’s not about lack of talent, or lack of desire to win. I’m sure these guys hate losing more than we hate to watch them lose. So what’s the problem? Well, I think the problem lies inside each and everyone of the Braves players right now. It’s such an overwhelming aura that I can feel it permeating through the speakers on my laptop as Don and Pete described the team on the radio today. What this team lacks, in my opinion, is heart. They lack the heart to come through when faced with adversity in a hostile environment. It’s as if they lie down and accept the inevitable defeat when they have just as much, or an even better chance than thier opposition to win these games. The confidence isn’t there like it is when they’re rolling. The swagger. We’re the f’n Braves, damn it. We aren’t that far off from being the perennial powerhouse, are we? Have we forgotten? It sure seems like it. Like I told my friend and fellow blogger, Tommy, I wish I could see the Braves show any kind of emotion outside of being discouraged and flat in these situations. Get angry, get mad, get loose, cowboy the f'n heck up, get horny if you have to, I don't care...as long as you don't play like you're accepting defeat.

Perhaps Gene Hackman said it best in his role as Jimmy McGinty in “The Replacements” when he said “Heart. We gotta have heart.”

Meet the Mets

2008-05-21T10:39:00.003-10:00

Step right up and greet the Mets.

Indeed, we did.

Now, I know the Mets are familiar with Tom Glavine, who stifled the Mets after a shaky opening inning, but I'd like them to go ahead and meet Jorge Campillo.

Campillo, the 29-year old right hander from Mexico, made just his second career start (his only other start was in 2005 when he tore a ligament in his elbow after 1 inning) against the New York Mets in the 2nd game of a twin-bill.

With Francoeur, Kotsay, and McCann out of the lineup for Atlanta, I'm sure the Mets were rejoicing. They must have felt that this was a chance to even up this series and gain some momentum headed into the final two games of this 4-game set. Well, guess again.

With an arsenal that may only be equaled by Carlton 'Doc' Windgate from the Major League III, Campillo absolutely baffled the Mets through 6 three-hit shutout innings Tuesday night. Perhaps what was most impressive was the fact that he K'd 7.

Oh, and that offense that was missing 3 key components still managed to put up 6 runs.

You know, there are years where everything seems to go right. There are years where everything goes wrong. There are years where you dominate the league. Then there are years that you just flat out suck; this year may be one of those years for the Mets. Not only does it seem that it's not in the cards for them, they just can't perform. I predicted about a week into the season that they'd finish 3rd in the NL behind the Phillies and Braves, and ahead of the Marlins, but it appears they might have a strong chance of finishing fourth (which is essentially last place since the Nationals aren't a real team). A poster at Chop Nation mentioned that you have to feel sorry for Willie Randolph, and I think that's true. The Mets are generally old, hurting, and they were ill-prepared for the hardships of slumps and injuries. I've always praised Omar Minaya for a decent job done in New York, but I can't extend it into this season...poor job, Omar. Piss poor.

Oh...and I hate to poke fun at players who get hurt in the heat of a play, because I used to play it balls to the wall as well, but how's your head, Ryan Church? Serves you right for now going into a proper slide, you dumb f*ck.

Mark Kotsay: Arbitration or not?

2008-05-17T14:35:00.009-10:00

So the discussion of whether or not to offer Mark Kotsay arbitration after the season was brought up by yours truly over at the Chop Nation forums. Of course, I've got to be the bold one to suggest we risk offering arbitration under the conditions that; 1) he stays healthy in 2008, 2) he has a good year offensively.

So, with that in mind, you're probably asking why I'm suggesting we offer him arbitration after what can only be called a career year. Well, I've got a justified reason. Really. I do. Here are the pros of both scenarios:

If he accepts arbitration...

We have a low-risk one-year deal that buys us one more year for Jordan Schaefer (whose progression is being delayed by an HGH suspension) and Gorkys Hernandez (who is probably at least another year off at the least) to develop even further before having to make their debuts.
The one-year deal we give him will likely be in the neighborhood of $10M. Hardly breaking the bank.
The best available CF aside from Kotsay is Corey Patterson. (Oh, please God, let us not sign him)

If he doesn't accept arbitration...

We shift Gregor Blanco over to CF and bat him leadoff, moving Kelly J down in the order into a better run-producing slot.
We take the draft picks that come as compensation.

In my books, it's a win-win. What do you think?

Personal Update

2008-05-17T11:34:00.003-10:00

Ok...so BFH's View From The Rock died for a couple of months. There's a justified reason, though...and that reason is school. About two weeks into school, God decided to just pile it on. Homework, quizzes, exams, mini-projects, projects, and more projects. Well, 7 projects and 5 months later, BFH is back in business (sort of). Hopefully I'll be able to post regularly over the summer and into next semester...we'll see how it goes.

Next post will be about the person we last talked about...Mark Kotsay.

Frank Wren Goes Trade Happy Pt II

2008-01-25T15:43:00.001-10:00

On with today’s three part series, as I look into the second deal that Frank Wren pulled off this winter.

RHRP Joey Devine and RHSP Jamie Richmond for CF Mark Kotsay and cash. AKA: Billy Beane’s revenge.

Gosh, and I thought Frank Wren was doing so well this off-season. Then he goes ahead and makes a trade that irks the heck out of me. This move disappoints me so much that I have trouble organizing my thoughts every time I think of it.

Well, first of all, I think I need to say that I like Mark Kotsay as a ball player. When he’s healthy, Kotsay is one of those players who never really wow’s you, but doesn’t ever piss you off. While he obviously isn’t in Andruw’s league, he will fill the vacancy left by Jones admirably until one of our prospects is ready to make the jump to the majors. Despite his lack of the spectacular diving catch or the majestic 500 foot homerun, the one thing that Kotsay should provide that Andruw could not is a tad bit of consistency.

I’m sure we all remember the times when Andruw Jones would pick up the offense, throw it over his shoulder and carry it for weeks at a time. Those were good times, but I’m sure all of us remember the times when Andruw would almost single handedly hold the offense down. During his notorious cold streaks he flailed at sliders a foot off the plate and rolled over fastballs resulting in double plays. For the most part, Kotsay shouldn’t suffer long bouts of futility like that with his knack for making contact.

The problem with Kotsay is that he’s extremely fragile. He played in only 56 games in 2007 as he returned from surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back, and was disabled late in the year with back spasms. If he manages to play in 140 games in 2008, I’ll chalk that up as a big success for us and I’ll really like our chances of contending in the NL East. Anything less and we’ll be ushering in the next era a bit earlier than expected, regardless of whom replaces him if he goes on the DL.

So, how much do you expect to give up for an injury-riddled centerfielder who has one-year and $7M left on his contract? Well, by golly, you’d hope it wouldn’t be much. Unfortunately, Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane knew that and chucked in $5M plus the assignment bonus awarded to Kotsay because he was traded. Well, you may as why that’s a bad thing, and I’ll tell you right now. The fact that Beane is giving us this “bargain” price on Kotsay, he has all the leverage in the world to ask for something worthwhile. With that leverage, he asked for Joey Devine and Jamie Richmond. In essence, he purchased one of our better young arms plus another prospect. Beane is notorious for not wanting to pay his players to play for other clubs, and the fact that he was so willing to cough up $5M should be plenty evidence as to why this was not a good idea. We got the better of him in the Hudson deal, and he’s come back to return the favor. Though, Mr. Beane...despite all your cunning, when you traded Mark Kotsay, you also sent his wife to Atlanta. Muahahaha.

Frank Wren Goes Trade Happy Pt. I

2008-01-25T08:54:00.000-10:00

So, aside from Tom Glavine (who was virtually holding up a sign saying "Atlanta or bust"), this off-season has been nothing but trades for the Atlanta Braves. They traded Renteria to the Tigers...who have since gone on to stack the AL Central odds into their favor, and now Wren's gone ahead and pulled the trigger on three more deals since I last posted. First, I’ll jot down my thoughts on the Ohman/Infante acquisitions.

RHRP Jose Ascanio for LHRP Will Ohman and INF Omar Infante.

Some may have hated this deal because we're giving up a young, hard-throwing reliever for a light-hitting utility man and a lefty specialist, but I love this deal for that very reason. Despite the obvious potential that Ascanio has, the fact that we were able to plug not one, but two holes in our roster is a big deal.

In a free agent market where quality, or even mediocre-to-crappy, left handed relief pitching is costing any given team 3-years and $4-5M annually, having Will Ohman under contract for 2008 at a cost of $1.6M is a savings in itself. To top things off, I could argue that Will Ohman is highly effective against left handed hitters. His highest average against in the last 3 years is his last season, which most consider to be a down year for Ohman, where he allowed lefties to hit a whoppin’ .236. If Will can manage to throw some strikes, I’m very confident he can improve on that number.

Some of you are probably sitting there and yelling at your monitors, looking past Ohman and grumbling about Omar Infante. “He’s nothing special” is what a friend of mine said when describing Infante’s offensive and defensive potential. Honestly, I’d be fighting a losing battle if I said he was anything more than a bench player, so I’m not going to say that. What I will say, though, is that Infante’s value lies in his versatility. Sure, paying him $1.4M is a bit steep, but we paid Chris Woodward almost $900K in 2007 to be our utility guy. Not only did Woodward have virtually no chance to hit better than .250, he plays very few games in the outfield. Infante brings the ability to play a half-way decent centerfield in an emergency situation and had a fighting chance to put up semi-decent offensive numbers for a utility guy off the bench. Will Infante be able to step in and play in the event of an injury? Sure. He won’t embarrass you, but at the same time, he won’t impress you.

So…was it all worth it to surrender Ascanio’s live arm for these two? Of course, it was worth it. If there’s anything that we are well-stocked in this season, it is power-armed relief pitching. Manny Acosta, Tyler Yates, Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, a potential return of Mike Gonzalez, an outside shot at contributions from Chris Resop, Phil Stockman, Jeff Bennett and Blaine Boyer. We have a lot of arms capable of providing quality innings of relief. Finding a super-utility guy and a good left handed relief pitcher in a single trade for one young reliever is worth our while.

Recap after a long long lay off...

2008-01-24T20:35:00.000-10:00

So, it's been quite an eventful few months since I've last posted here. I'm going to go ahead and try and get everyone updated on what's been going on here on the rock.

First, school and finals really handed my butt to me on a silver platter. I was averaging about 3 hours of sleep a night from about the time I stopped posting through the second week of December.

Then I had to pack up and fly to Las Vegas for a vacation with mom and grandma. Despite it being a "vacation", it felt more like a chore. Non-stop and on the go for 5 days before coming home for Christmas and New Years.

Then the stomach flu from January 4th through the 9th, and school starting back up on the 14th. Fun fun fun. I'll end this one here and separate the personal life from the baseball stuff...

Glavine, Atlanta's next centerfielder, The Very Aussie Movie

2007-11-06T19:27:00.000-10:00

Dave O'Brien of the AJC has reported that the Braves have admitted that they want to bring Tom Glavine back to Atlanta. Umm...well, I know Mr. O'Brien needs to write his articles and Frank Wren went public with his desires to sign Glavine, but this was not really breaking news. Regardless...way to sniff that one out there, DOB.

DOB's article also has Wren mentioning that the Braves will not over-spend for their next centerfielder via the free agent market, but rather acquire a shorter-term option via trade. DOB speculates that we could try and acquire David DeJesus, though, I think he's just naming a convenient name that may be had from an old friend named Dayton Moore in Kansas City.

And finally, props to Lauren Turbyfield for finding this one! You're the bomb, LT!

FOX Sports is reporting that there may be a hollywood movie in the works based on the rags-to-riches story of Braves reliever, Peter Moylan. Despite the potential movie to be based on his comeback, Moylan insists his focus is repeating the success he found this past season. Good to know Captain Aussie is focused on baseball after such a successful rookie season.

The Red Sox, the Edgar Renteria trade, and Curt Schilling

2007-10-31T21:09:00.000-10:00

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox for winning the 2007 World Series. Although my pre-season projections had the Red Sox and the Dodgers in the World Series, I did pick the Red Sox to dominate the NL team, and that they did. The following is an excerpt of a post from the Chop Nation forums where I made my predictions:

Notes - The Red Sox led by Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Beckett mow through the majority of the playoff series with the help of their offense led by the side show of Manny, Big Papi, and J-Dizzle Drew (a nick name that will be given to him by Manny and Big Papi at mid-season after JD does a thug pose after a game winning RBI).

So perhaps I was wrong about the J-Dizzle Drew thing and the fact that it was an all-around offensive bludgeoning of the Colorado Rockies, but I was right about Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Beckett mowing through the World Series. I said it in the pre-season, I said it before the playoffs began, and I'll say it now with hindsight being 20/20: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Curt Schilling is murderer's row of starting pitching and over a short series, they are dangerous.

Speaking of Boston Red Sox starting pitchers, Curt Schilling has an official blog. The most recent post was put up yesterday, and it gives his take on the first free agency experience of his 20+ year career. He simplifies the process of filing for free agency by saying "So this huge thing, free agency, was accomplished by doing the following. Place a phone call to the MLBPA, tell them you want to become a free agent, hang up. Weird. Something that can be so life altering was pretty much a 48 second phone call." I'm sure he over-simplified this, but I imagined it to be more of a professional process, perhaps with some paper work involved somewhere. Interesting, to say the least.

Schilling also goes on to list several teams which he wouldn't mind signing with because of various reasons. The list as follows: Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, New York Mets, Philadelphia, Atlanta, L.A., S.D., Arizona, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis, Milwaukee.

Interesting that he'd list the Atlanta Braves as a possible destination. Although, I can imagine the Braves being interested, I can't imagine him signing because he's likely to warrant $11-13M in guaranteed money on a one-year deal. Though, wouldn't it be something if payroll was raised enough to accomodate him? A rotation headed by John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Curt Schilling, and rounded out by a combo of Jair Jurrjens, Chuck James, Mike Hampton and Jo-Jo Reyes would definitely be something special. That's not even considering a possible return of Tom Glavine, but that's a different story.

And with the mention of Jair Jurrjens, an explanation would be nice as to how he made it into our rotation, wouldn't it? Heh. On October 29th, the day after the Red Sox swept the Rockies in the World Series, the Atlanta Braves and the Detroit Tigers fired up the hot stove by making the first major trade of the off-season. The Braves sent shortstop, Edgar Renteria, and some cash considerations to the Detroit Tigers for 22-year old starting pitcher, Jair Jurrjens, and 20-year old minor league centerfielder, Gorkys Hernandez.

It's hard to tell which team got the better of the deal here, though, it's probably what makes this deal so fair at the moment. While Edgar is an all-star quality shortstop, he is getting older and his defensive range is diminishing year by year. Once a stellar defender, Renteria is now only average to above-average. The Tigers have a veteran who knows how to handle the bat to protect Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez in the lineup.

On the other hand, Jair Jurrjens is a projectable young starting pitcher. He throws in the low to mid-90's with a decent breaking ball and a deceptive changeup. He has great control from what I can tell, and that's more than you can ask for a young, hard-throwing pitcher. I've read several reports that project him being anywhere from a top-of-the-rotation starter to a middle-of-the-rotation starter. In any event, he should be a very solid #4 starter in 2007. As for Gorkys Hernandez, he's supposed to be in the top 10 of the minor leagues as centerfielders go. He's supposedly a 5-tool talent that is growing into his power. At any rate, he adds to the outfield depth we already feature with Jordan Schaffer, Brandon Jones, Gregor Blanco, and the other young outfielders that have debuted in Atlanta over the last few years.

2007: The Craptastic Season

2007-10-14T18:56:00.000-10:00

So...2007 was supposed to be different. The Braves had revamped the bullpen with the addition of two stud setup men, we were supposed to see the return of one starting pitcher and the next step in the development of another starting pitcher. We were supposed to see a huge walk-year from one of our veterans, and the beginning of a bright...and powerful...career of a rookie. We were supposed to re-establish dominace in the NL East and make a run into the playoffs. So what happened?

Well, for starters...pun is intended...we were treated to a nice rebound season from Huddy, and Smoltz had a Smoltzian-esque season as he always does. Otherwise...I can safely say that the rest of the season was like playing a game of musical chairs when each chair is piled high with crap. Chuck James regressed like I thought he would, Mike Hampton barely made it into spring training before going down with another injury, his replacement Mark Redman went to crap as soon as the season started, and the combo of Cormier, Carlyle and Jo-Jo Reyes didn't do much more.

As for the bullpen, Mike Gonzalez went down early with a torn ligament that required Tommy John and Blob Thickman proved that only his ego could be bigger than his blubbery gut. Petey Moylan was a nice surprise, though. I look forward to having he and Soriano shortening games for us in 2008.

Ahh...then there was Andruw and Thorman. God...I don't even want to talk about it. Andruw's leaving, and Thorman's probably on his way out via trade this winter. Can't say I'm overly disappointed that they may both be gone, but I sure will miss Andruw's defense and the dreams of a perrenial 35 HR first baseman that would be under team control for the next 6 years...then again, if Teixeira is signed long-term, that won't be an issue.

In short, things that may have been assumptions...became issues. If all had gone according to plan, I'm sure the Braves would have run away with the East. Then again...nothing ever goes totally according to plan, does it?

Wandy the Wonderful, Braves vs Mets Preview

2007-08-06T19:44:00.000-10:00

Howdy do, baseball fans. Today I've got a couple of things to mention, and they include today's splits-master Astros lefty starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez and a look at the pivotal Braves/Mets series that will begin later today. Anyway, enough small talk. First topic!

Wandy. Most have probably heard of the strange road/home splits that players seem to put up. Francouer had that problem with Atlanta in 2005, Ervin Santana's been that way in the past. Right here and right now, it's Wandy Rodriguez. No one pulls a rabbit out of their hat quite like the great magician Wandy Rodriguez does at his home starts at Minute Maid.

I first noticed Wandy had some decent looking stats when I was looking for a spot start in my fantasy league. It was July 14th and I was looking for one more pitcher to plug to get a quick and cheap win. I looked among the strike out leaders and past over guys like Boof Bonser and Daniel Cabrera to find Wandy. He was coming off of two amazing starts vs. the hard hitting Rockies and Mets, compiling 16 innings while allowing 7 total hits (7 hits, people!!!), 3 BB, 12 K, and most impressive of all, 0 earned runs. Zero, nada, nil, nothing. NO EARNED RUNS. Did I mention that was against the Rockies and Mets? I did? Well, too bad. I said it again. He won both starts and I felt safe that he could handle another hard-hitting offense in the Cubbies as he was riding a hugemangous (and yes, I said hugemangous) hot streak.

Well, what I failed to notice was that both of those starts he won vs. the Mets and Rox were at home and that the Cubs game was at Wrigley Field. Well, to make a long story shorter, Wandy got torched. 3.1 IP, 9 H, 2 BB, 2 K while allowing 7 runs, all of which were earned. Ouch. I'll repeat that for good measure. Ouch.

Fortunately for me, I dropped him for the following week, as he started a game against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC park and again had a not-so-stellar start going 5 innings while allowing 6 runs (4 earned). Then I picked him back up for a start at home vs. the Pardes which he won in 7 innings of work allowing 1 run. I again dropped him, risking losing him to waivers...knowing full well that he'd start in Atlanta the following week, and sure enough, Atlanta's new look offense torched Wandy for 8 runs (all earned) in 4 innings of work.

Now, I picked him back up (Yeah...I make a ton of moves in my fantasy league. I'm well over 110 moves on the year) for his start on Monday, and he rewarded me with 8 strong innings allowing 1 run on 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9. He didn't win, as the Astros were unable to mount an offensive against the Cubs, but a strong effort no less. This time around, I think I'll be holding onto him for his home starts and not risking losing this kind of production...err, maybe split-production...to waivers. Onward we move...

Coming up later today, the Braves will face off against their NL East rivals, the New York Mets. The Mets, though quiet at the deadline, feature the return of Moises Alou and hope to have Pedro Martinez back by the end of the month. I can't think of any better time to strike when the iron is hot. We have Carlyle, Smoltz, and Hudson going for us. They counter with Oliver Perez, Brian Lawrence and Orlando Hernandez.

Now, I know Ollie Perez has dominated the Braves this season and El Dookie is coming off a few strong starts, but we've got a revamped offense and the strength of our starting staff heading our troops. Perhaps it's time for Mark Teixeira to earn his nicknames that I've given him. For those who missed it, they are BDT (Big Daddy Teix) and MMTHMMM (Mean Mark The Homerun Mashing Met Mauler. For us to take this series, we may have to slug them into submission...and we'll need BDT to be BDT to do it. GO BRAVES!

Review of Atlanta's trade deadline moves

2007-07-31T22:27:00.000-10:00

What an active trade deadline it was. I'll give my thoughts and analysis on what transpired as the deadline passed.

From on, to off, to on-again, the Teixeira deal was finalized and announced a few hours before the 4 PM eastern cut-off time. It was long speculated and not that much of a secret as most Schuerholz acquisitions, but it finally happened. Mark Teixeira, an Atlanta native, is coming home to his roots.

Tex, Teix, Tesh, Big Daddy T, or Mean Mark the Homerun Mashing Met Mauler...whatever you'd like to call him, he's Atlanta's biggest acquisition since Fred McGriff back in 1993, and the biggest name traded at the deadline since Bartolo Colon was acquired by the Expos in 2002. Teixeira will most likely be sandwiched between Chipper and Andruw Jones to form the most frightening lineup the National League has to offer. A friend of mine mentioned a few tidbits of information he saw on a New York Mets fan forums...and the jist of it was that Mets fans are quickly going into denial. A lot forcing themselves to believe that this will just be a "rental" and that the Braves won't have control over Mark in 2008 (which is not the case, which I covered in earlier blog entries) and how BDT is highly over-rated and that a move away from the Ballpark in Arlington will come with a drastic drop off in power numbers. Both highly unlikely. Mets fans everywhere can look at Luis Castillo as their biggest acquisition and hit the panic button for all I care.

BDT not coming alone, though, as left handed relief pitcher Ron Mahay is also packing his bags for Atlanta. Acquired alongside Teixeira, Mahay will join a solid group of Atlanta relievers to be our lefty specialist. With Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley (despite his broken hand may return later in September for a final run at the division) all within the NL East, Mahay's duty will be to get these guys out in crucial, high pressure spots.

For these two former Rangers, we gave up the rights to 5 young ballplayers. Switch hitting catcher/first baseman Jarrod Saltalamacchia being the biggest name (figuratively and literally), followed by 18 year old phenom shortstop Elvis Andrus, 19 year old fire-baller Neftali Feliz, 22 year old left handed starting pitcher Matt Harrison, and 21 year old left handed reliever Beau Jones.

It may be too early to draw conclusions about all 5 prospects included in the package for BDT and Mahay, but from the hype that surrounded just Salty, Andrus, and Harrison, we may be in a big world of hurt when they're all playing for Texas in 2 or 3 years. Then again...Schuerholz has had a nice track record for not giving up too much in packages. Maybe Andrus is all hype, Harrison's recent shoulder issues may develop into a bigger problem, and the two other young arms won't pan out. No one knows...but it's painfully obvious that this deal was made for right now. Schuerholz is going for broke and it may be World Series or bust this year and next.

Another deal made for right now was the acquisition of right handed closer, Octavio Dotel. Though, it is unclear how Cox will use him...he's hinted that he'll use him the same way he intended on using Gonzo/Soriano/Wickman at the start of the year. So basically...Dotel and Soriano will handle the 7th and 8th, while Wickman continues to close games in the 9th. Funtabulous. Otherwise, this trade adds extreme depth to an already deep bullpen. It will allow Yates to get some much needed rest to regain his effectiveness and gives us 3 strikeout arms. If we're going for it all...we may as well pick him up and see what he can bring to the table. With there being virtually no starting pitching available at the deadline, beefing up the relief corps was a big move.

To acquire Dotel, the Braves surrendered once highly regarded Kyle Davies. While Davies has struggled with control and ineffectiveness, he's still got a high ceiling, and he will be missed in the future. Knowing he's gone sucks, but if we're going all in...the immediate future must be sacrificed to git-r-done.

Finally, a minor deal with the San Diego Padres that brought us former Met, Royce Ring. He'll most likely be Ron Mahay's insurance policy and plan for 2008. Not much of a "right now" move here, but it still warrants a raised eyebrow as we've sent him to Richmond to continue his work as a reliever.

We gave the Padres Will Startup and Wilfredo Ledezma for Ring. So...in context, we traded lefty killer Macay McBride and fast-rising Will Startup for Royce Ring. This move...I don't like at all. McBride will develop and become a very effective reliever in his career. Bank on it. Startup appeared to be on the fast track. Ring has been discarded by a team that so painfully needed lefties to step up two years ago. *Sigh* I guess you can't win'em all, eh?

Despite my disgust with John Schuerholz over the last two years or so, I applaud his "win now" attitude. He, like many others including myself, realizes that the National League has been extremely weak over the last two years. He knows full well that a big acquisition like the one he made with Teixeira could be all that the Braves need to catapult themselves into contendership of being the NL participant in the World Series. One can only hope that if and when we get there...the Braves will not be staring down the gullet of the Boston Red Sox wrecking machine that is now almost invincible on the pitching staff with the acquisition of Eric Gagne.

Kenny Williams: Village Idiot, Teixeira continued,

2007-07-29T01:18:00.000-10:00

Per Ken Rosenthal of FOX sports, Kenny Williams was offered a bounty of Edgar Renteria AND a pitching prospect in return for Jon Garland. I repeat...an all-star potential starting shortstop signed longterm and a pitching prospect for what is essentially a flukish average pitcher with a chronic knot in his shoulder that he claims he'll have to deal with for the rest of his career. If that's not robbery, I don't know what is...AND WILLIAMS TURNED IT DOWN.

If I am a White Sox fan hearing this rumor, I'd be calling for Kenny to be taken out behind the barn and shot, dismembered, and having his limbs shot again just for good measure. I know the market for pitching is thin, and you need to be sure to get everything you can for your starting pitching...but the market for quality shortstops is just as bad. When you're offered a potential igniter (especially with that offense in Chicago) with a prospect to boot, you take it.

Also reported by Rosenthal, Mark Teixeira talks have stalled out...for now. The Anaheim Angels and the Atlanta Braves are said to be the only two remaining clubs in talks with the Rangers about former allstar first baseman, Teixeira, but both teams are reluctant to improve their current offers.

The Angels come to the table with a package of Casey Kotchman, Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders, and an outfield prospect not named Reggie Willits. Not bad. Not bad at all.

The Braves are countering with a package of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus or Brent Lillibridge, and either Kyle Davies or Matt Harrison. The Braves also want a reliever, most likely C.J. Wilson, included in the deal.

Now...personally, if I am in the shoes of Rangers GM Jon Daniels, I am looking at the Braves package and just salivating. Not only does Saltalamacchia's potential trump Kotchman's, but Andrus' projections trump any outfielder not named Vlad that the Angels can put on the table. Even if Ervin Santana is put onto the table, I'd take a look at his splits away from Anaheim and cringe...then vomit. To me, this is just a matter of Daniels realizing he's got a great package of young talent on his hands presented by Schuerholz and the Braves and letting a lefty specialist and a 2009 free agent go for a cumulative 18 years of service from Salty, a minor league SS, and a starting pitching prospect.

Mark Teixeira Part II

2007-07-25T22:48:00.000-10:00

Last night I touched on the idea of the Braves acquiring Mark Teixeira. I announced my displeasure for the deal, stating that I'd much rather have 6 years of service from Saltalamacchia and how Tex would leave the Braves after 2008 anyway.

What I failed to consider were some underlying factors that make this deal very plausible, not only in the rumor mill, but in reality as well.

First of all, I can see the benefit of having a bat like Teixeira's in the middle of the Braves current lineup. With Renteria, Chipper, Andruw, Teixeira, Francoeur, and McCann, the Braves would host a lineup that could rival any other in the league. Furthermore, in 2008, the Braves would have two .900+ OPS guys batting back to back in Chipper and Tex. Imagine all the damage they'd be doing...when healthy.

Another thing that makes this sensible is the rise of one known as The Hawaiian Punch. His given name is Isaiah Kaaihue, but he is better known by his middle name, Kala, by Braves fans. He's been below the radar for much of the last year, but now is starting to turn some heads. As a 21 year old, he posted a .329, .458, .614 clip at Class A Rome and this season, despite struggling mightily early on, has posted a .298, .410, .583 at Class A+ Myrtle Beach. He was recently promoted to Double A Mississippi and will continue his ascent to Atlanta there. At the pace Kala has been moving, I have set an ETA for Kaaihue in late-2008/spring 2009. Perfect fit for when Tex is supposed to leave us like all the other Scott Boras clients have in the past.

As I mentioned to a friend of mine, I was hesitant to jump onto the bandwagon of these rumors at first...but after fully analyzing the situation, I can say I'm genuinely warming up to the idea of acquiring Big Tex for Saltalamacchia and other prospects. I would dare go as far say that I'm quite excited at the prospect of having Tex batting behind the Jones Boys for the remainder of 2007.

~BFH

Tex to Atlanta, Brewers pitching, the Barry Bonds saga.

2007-07-24T23:48:00.000-10:00

A friend of mine, who shall remain unnamed, has mentioned to me that Tex may be headed to Atlanta within the next few days.

For those of you who are unsure who I am referring to, I'm talking about Texas Rangers' switch hitting first baseman, Mark Teixeira. The asking price for Tex may be future superstar catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

While this is a steep price to pay for any player, who can complain when you're acquiring a monster bat for your lineup? Well, I may have a few complaints.

First off, he plays in Texas, where all hitters go to pad their numbers. Want proof? Gary Matthews Jr. Sammy Sosa. David Dellucci was almost a 30 HR guy there. Mark DeRosa posted a big year there before cashing in with Chicago. Even a lefty vulnerable to southpaws posted a 32 HR season there, his name is Hank Blalock. Further proof would be to name every pitcher that has seen their career go to heck upon their arrival at the Ballpark in Arlington. Chan Ho Park and Kevin Millwood to name two. That's not even taking into consideration that between 2004 and 2006, Tex's splits favor his home stats heavily. He bats nearly 40 points higher, adds 20 points to his on-base average, and slugs 60 points better in the friendly confines in Texas.

Second of all, he is only retainable through the 2008 season. He'll have 5 seasons in the majors and will be arbitration eligible for the last time next season. He makes $9.4M in 2007 in the 2nd year of a 2 year contract, and could command as much as $13-15M through his final arbitration year (oddly...that figure replaces Andruw's $13.5M from 2007 on the payroll). This shows a commitment to hitting and not pitching. Eh...color me unimpressed.

Thirdly, he's a Boras client. So is Andruw. We all know what's going to happen to Andruw after his contract expires after the 2007 season. We all know what will happen to Tex if he's acquired by Atlanta and his contract expires after the 2008 season. 6 years of Salty vs. 1 1/2 years of Teixeira. I'll take 6 years from the Salty one any day.

Moving on...

I've realized over the course of the season that the Milwaukee Brewers are absolutely LOADED with starting pitching. They have Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Jeff Suppan, Claudio Vargas, Dave Bush, Yovani Gallardo and Carlos Villaneuva already on their staff. They just recently called up another young arm, lefty Manny Parra.

I saw him as the expected starter for the Brewers' double header on Saturday and I pulled up my MLB.TV subscription in curiousity. I'm telling you that this kid may be the biggest thing in Milwaukee since....well...earlier this season when Yovani Gallardo was called up.

He throws an easy 93-95 mph on his fastball, has a plus-changeup around the 84-86 mph range and a plus-curveball that drops into the zone in the mid-70's. He appears to have good command of his arsenal and has a raw ability to strike batters out. At the very least, the Brewers could give Parra the Johan Santana treatment and give him regular work as a setup man until he's capable of holding down a rotation spot. I know I've been burned on going out on a limb for the likes of Chris Reitsma and Dan Kolb in the past, but for each pitcher I've scouted wrong...there are ones like Padres Allstar Chris Young and Marlins closer Kevin Gregg that I have seen coming out of no where. Parra will be something special alongside Gallardo. These two may pair up to create a Brewers dynasty that will give the Cardinals and Cubs a run for their money for years. Bank on it.

Finally, the Barry Bonds saga.

This thing is getting old with me. He's chugging along on his way to becoming the all-time HR leader and I'm sick and tired of having ESPN air every single AB as if the world cares that he'll be the all-time homerun leader. I kind of hope he gets it over with soon so that we can move on...then we can concentrate on the next @$$hole to get within range of the record. That guy's name is Alex Rodriguez. We'll save his judgement until another day.

~BFH