With that out of the way, we'll get to the schematic I've been working on for quite some time now. Since the last time we discussed this stuff, the Braves have opted not to name a new General Manager and have basically decided to have John Hart, John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox run the personnel decisions as a three-headed monster that I am calling "The Triad".
Some are optimistic, but I will withhold my optimism and choose careful reservation moving forward into the winter. I can't say that I entirely agreed with the way Schuerholz ran things towards the end of his tenure as the GM of the Atlanta Braves and I can't say that I'm entirely happy about John Hart joining Schuerholz and Cox to form "The Triad". While I am certain Hart is his own man and is willing to speak his mind, I'm afraid his mind is too much like Schuerholz and Cox and I will be displeased with the train wreck of a winter they have planned.
Regardless, that's not what we're here for. What you're here for is to read about what I would do if I were the team's new GM, right? Or....at least that's what you should be here for. Otherwise what are you doing here? Are you lost? Go away, I don't have any Halloween candy for you. But I do have an idea of how I'd create my roster if I were in charge of personnel decisions, and without further delay here it is.
Non-tenders
- Ramiro Pena - Good riddance. You suck. I can't justify paying you more than the league minimum. The fact you are arbitration eligible is just a thorn in my side.
- Kris Medlen - Recovering from a second consecutive Tommy John surgery is rough. You made a solid $5M+ off of us last year and that was a decent risk for the team to take for you to pitch your way back. Now that you've proven extremely fragile, I can't justify paying you that much in arbitration.
- Brandon Beachy - You're in the same boat as Medlen. Coming off one Tommy John is tough. Coming back from two is even tougher. You had the advantage of being much cheaper, but I still can't justify guaranteeing you anything when you've also proven yourself fragile.
- Jonny Venters - You're in an even worse position than the prior two names. You're trying to come back from a third ligament replacement surgery. What did you expect? If I won't risk guarantees to the other two, there's absolutely no way I'm guaranteeing you anything...not even considering that your role as a reliever is volatile at best and you're the easiest to replace.
Trades
- Joey Terdoslavich & David Hale to Cincinatti Reds; Mike Leake to Atlanta Braves
- Reds Perspective: They are said to need a little bit of wiggle room in the payroll and they are also said to be in the market to trade a couple of their pitchers. In Terdoslavich, they get to pick up a spare part that can fill in for Votto in a pinch if Votto's knee problems flare up again (and they seem chronic, to be honest with you). They also grab a pitcher who can swing between starting and relieving in a pinch. Hale's power sinker may play up well in their park where anything hit in the air seemingly turns into a homerun. In the deal they also drop about $10M in payroll which will allow them to improve their bullpen and bench.
- Braves Perspective: If we target a Reds pitcher, why not Cueto or Latos, right? Well, plain and simple. We don't have the ammunition to trade for Cueto or Latos. The only way it would be possible is if we somehow involved Jason Heyward in a trade and I do not think that is a good idea in the slightest. That said, Mike Leake is my target for the simple fact that Alfredo Simon is one lucky S.O.B. and he is 35-years old and will absolutely not repeat his 2014 success. On top of that, Mike Leake may be quite easy to retain with an extension. More on that later.
- Chris Johnson to Boston Red Sox; Will Middlebrooks & Daniel Nava to Atlanta Braves
- Red Sox Perspective: They are prioritizing left-handed bats...primarily Chase Headley and Pablo Sandoval at third base, but I do not think they will nab either--or at least in this realm of possibility, they do not have the opportunity to grab either. I've given Sandoval back to the Giants and Headley stayed in New York in this scenario. The Red Sox, sick and tired of Will Middlebrooks and at the end of their rope because of his decision to not play winter ball trade their headache for ours. Since Johnson has a history of at least being decent--where as Middlebrooks doesn't--the Red Sox also give up a spare part who is useful but had a down year and could have been a non-tender for them in Daniel Nava.
- Braves Perspective: A complete hunch, but I think "The Triad" would make this trade too. Johnson's personality, while not cancerous, does not seem like a good fit in Atlanta. He's hot-headed and is easily frustrated with his short-comings and that's not what the Braves culture is about. It never has been. There's a big difference between playing with passion (like how Brian Jordan used to, as well as Brian McCann) and being a hot-head (like Dan Kolb and Johnson). The latter types don't last long in Atlanta....especially when they do not produce enough to off-set their attitude.
- Evan Gattis to Texas Rangers; Nick Martinez, Nomar Mazara & Marcos Diplan to Atlanta Braves
- Rangers Perspective: What do I have to explain? They don't have any catchers and need one. Badly. Why the severe overpay in prospects? Because there are no catchers available anywhere. Yes, there's Russ Martin....but he's going to ask you for 4-years and $60M. You want to give that to a 33-year old catcher who has taken a beating on foul tips and collisions over the years? Yeah, I thought not. For a catcher with as much power as Gattis, who they can also use to DH on his days off from behind the dish, I feel it's a perfectly fair price they paid.
- Braves Perspective: I can imagine half the generally uneducated Braves fan base and half the generally educated Braves fan base rushing to the comments section to call me a f'ing idgimit. Why trade a power-hitting catcher when the team's issue was run production, right? Well, the problem wasn't so much power, IMO....it was the team's overall approach at the plate. They had almost zero strikezone recognition in certain spots and Evan Gattis was part of it (and so was Chris Johnson. You noticing a trend here?). Besides, the market dictated in this scenario, that it was the right time to make a move because of the type of return I was able to obtain. Had I not been able to demand the price of a young starting pitcher with the ability to one day become a middle of the rotation workhorse, a top prospect outfielder who may be talented enough to stick in center with power and speed as well as a flyer on an electric arm low in the minors where the sky is the limit, then I would not have moved Gattis. What makes me a great wanna-be GM is that I do not have emotional attachment to any players. This move proves it once again.
- Jose Reyes, Mike Minor & Jordan Walden to Detroit Tigers; BJ Upton, Joe Nathan, Tommy La Stella, Jose Iglesias & Kyle Lobstein to Toronto Blue Jays; Ian Kinsler & Mark Buehrle to Atlanta Braves
- Blue Jays Perspective: This is probably the hardest part to explain. Why do they give up useful parts like Buehrle and Reyes for the Tigers' and Braves' cast offs? Well, it's simple. The Blue Jays are in dire financial trouble. Yes...they are planning to re-sign Melky Cabrera to a lucrative longterm contract, but they are paying contractual raises to almost everyone on the roster and they were already close to maxed out on payroll based on reports that they were not able to offer Ervin Santana much more than the $13M he signed for in Atlanta this year and that players had to step forward and offer to defer salary in order to create immediate payroll space. I can't imagine that has changed in Toronto and they need to move salary badly. In the deal they move $41M in payroll to the Tigers and Braves and take back just under $28M. For $13M in payroll freedom, and exchanging 2 players for 5 to help fill roster holes, the Jays accept much less than the value of Buehrle and Reyes combined. That's the grim side of a salary dump. You never get value back because of your stupidity in signing and/or taking on crappy contracts in trades.
- Tigers Perspective: Let me begin by saying I feel the Tigers winter has two truths to it. 1) They want to do big things. 2) They currently cannot afford to do it unless they move a little bit of payroll. The first is obvious. The second is evidenced in recent transactions (Granderson for Jackson and prospects, Fielder for Kinsler and Fister for prospects). Dombrowski won't be afraid to move players that seem like mainstays in order to recreate his roster. In this deal, he swaps out Kinsler (who did not get on base as much as he had hoped, I'm sure) and Joe Nathan's salary and takes on Jose Reyes' $22M/year in order to get a more dynamic top of the order middle infielder. He shifts Eugenio Suarez over to 2B where he bat and defense profile better and gains a setup arm that's cheaper than Nathan's salary. He picks up Soria's option and has no frets of paying him $7M because now he is the closer with Walden setting games up and ready to take over as closer the following year. He also gains a more proved 5th starter in Minor for his run at a championship.
- Braves Perspective: Just how the hell did I get away with this highway robbery, right? Easy. I exploited two teams' desperation. The Jays' desperation for payroll space and the Tigers' incessant need to reload for a run at a world championship. The Braves unloaded just over $23M in 2015 payroll between BJ, Minor, La Stella and Walden, but take on $35M in 2015 payroll for a total increase of $12M in absorbed salaries. It may seem like I'm dreaming....but I assure you that not many teams are positioned to absorb that much salary in 2015. Not even the big market clubs. You get away with this type of deal simply by taking advantage of others' misfortune and stupidity. Booyakasha.
Free Agents
- Re-Sign Emilio Bonifacio; 2-years, $6M w/ $2.75M option for 2017 or a $500K buyout
- $2.75M salary in each of the two seasons. I would be willing to go as high as $3.5M/year with an option to match. His flexibility and competent bat are just too valuable to let walk away in free agency.
- On top of the $2.75M salary, perhaps we could add incentives based on plate appearances, giving him small increments of money for 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances. This will allow him to earn more money each year if he falls into a starting spot...which is nice for him since I'll be asking him to hold down my centerfield spot until the trade market develops in June/July 2015.
- Sign George Kottaras; 1-year, 800K
- A lefty-swinging catcher who handles the bat rather well. Not much more you could ask for in a backup catcher. We won't be embarrassed to give Bethancourt a day off.
- Sign Ross Ohlendorf; 1-year minor league deal w/ invite to spring training. Out clause if he is not on the active roster by May 1st.
- $1M if he makes the team out of spring. Incentives for innings pitched starting at 150 and incremental payments for 160, 170, 180 IP.
- He was recently outrighted by the Nationals and elected free agency. This deal allows the Braves to bring him into spring training to compete with Nick Martinez, Cody Martin and others for the last rotation spot. If Ohlendorf wins, he gets a $1M salary and we use/abuse him until he either gets hurt or sucks hard enough and forces your hand to go to another option. If he doesn't make the team, we get to stash him for a month and utilize him if we need him, or we get to trade him out of spring training if a nice offer comes along. If he sucks so bad from the start that we don't go to Atlanta with him, we basically get to let him walk in May without having owed him anything.
- Sign Josh Outman; 1-year minor league deal w/ invite to spring training. Out close if he is not on the active roster by April 15th.
- $750K if he makes the active roster.
- He, too, was outrighted this fall and is a free agent. He isn't much to write about, but his one skill is getting lefties out. He is a true LOOGY. With this deal, you get to invite him to spring to compete with Chasen Shreve. You never know how things will go down. A lot of folks felt safe with Avilan. You see how that turned out. More options the better. If Outman doesn't make the team, we can either trade him or he gets to leave after a couple of weeks into the 2015 season.
- Sign Neftali Soto; 1-year, $650K
- This one will probably take some selling to you and that's fine. Soto's a former top prospect of the Reds who has been recently outrighted off the Cincinatti 40-man roster. He may not even reach free agency to be honest, but I feel the Braves should make the effort to acquire him if he doesn't become a free agent.
- Soto, a big righty, has tremendous power, but like many power prospects that never really make it big, he has some strikezone judgement issues that he never really got over. Despite the strikezone issues, he actually makes pretty decent contact for a guy with his power. He plays a decent third and first base and can handle playing the corner outfield positions if you ask him to. The kicker is that he has worked out as a catcher and can serve as a third/emergency catcher in a pinch. That's very Braves-like if you ask me.
- The Braves have rostered worse players, in my opinion. Matt Diaz comes to mind...and I think this guy can be Diaz, plus some, especially if you asked him to only take AB's against left-handed pitchers on a limited basis. Just don't be fooled into thinking he's a starter like the Braves thought Diaz was at one point.
Extensions
- Mike Leake; 4-years, $49M.
- 2015: $10M
- 2016: $13M
- 2017: $13M
- 2018: $13M
- 30+ starts for the past 3 years, increased workload each of those seasons resulting in a career-high 214.1 IP in 2014. ERA's under 4 in that park the last two seasons with xFIP's to support it. Not spectacular, but a steady producer with increasing groundball rates. Strike-thrower who could improve based on his homefield changing from a hitter's haven to a neutral setting. $13M/year is not that much to pay for a steady innings-eater.
- Alex Wood; 6-years, $32M
- 2015: $750K
- 2016: $1.5M
- 2017: $3.25M
- 2018: $6.5M
- 2019: $8M
- 2020: $11M
- 2021: Option $12M or $1M buyout
- An almost exact replica of the Julio Teheran extension, because....well, why the hell not? I'm a believer now. Give it to the kid.
- Jason Heyward; 7-years, $154M, starting in 2016
- 2015: $7.8M
- 2016: $20M
- 2017: $20M
- 2018: $22M
- 2019: $22M
- 2020: $22M
- 2021: $24M
- 2022: $24M
- 2023: $24M vesting option with 150 games played in '22 or 280 between '21-'22 seasons. If not, option is mutual w/ $4M buyout.
- 2024: $24M vesting option 150 games played in '23 or 280 between '22-'23. If not, option is mutual w/ $4M buyout
- Justin Upton; 5-years, $110M, starting in 2016
- 2015: $14.5M
- 2016: $24M
- 2017: $22M
- 2018: $22M
- 2019: $20M
- 2020: $20M
- Limited no-trade protection until 2018. Can block trades to 10 teams yearly. After that, Upton has 10-5 rights to veto trades if he pleases.
25-Man Roster
SP Julio Teheran
SP Alex Wood
SP Mark Buehrle
SP Mike Leake
SP Nick Martinez/Ross Ohlendorf
LR Anthony Varvaro
MR Juan Jaime
MR Chasen Shreve
MR Shae Simmons
MR James Russell
MR James Russell
SU David Carpenter
CL Craig Kimbrel
CA Christian Bethancourt
CA Christian Bethancourt
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Will Middlebrooks
SS Andrelton Simmons
3B Will Middlebrooks
SS Andrelton Simmons
LF Justin Upton
CF Emilio Bonifacio
RF Jason Heyward
CA George Kottaras
IF Phil Gosselin
OF Todd Cunningham
OF Daniel Nava
OF Daniel Nava
1B/3B/COF Neftali Soto
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