State of the Braves

DISCLAIMER: If you are a true optimist, or are hopeful of the Braves to make a comeback reminiscent of years during our decade and a half sodomization of the NL East/West and do not want to see an opinion as to why this season is lost and why we are not a true contender in 2008, please stop reading now.



Ok...so I was going to originally post this in the thread started by argentina about still believing in the team this year, because this little writeup showcases how I feel about the Braves chances for the stretch run, but I realized it will come off as extremely negative and I didn't want to drag down the overall morale boost that is present in that thread. While I still hope and think that the Braves could finish the season strong with what they currently have, I just think there is too much stacked up against them this season to hope for a post-season run.

So, I've been having discussions with several other Braves fans about the Braves recently, and most are guardedly optimistic that this team will formulate some kind of strong showing prior to the July 31st non-waivers trade deadline. With a strong showing, we could climb back to within several games of the NL East lead and then make a move to tie up some loose ends for the stretch run. While it could happen that way, I'm not sure how realistic one is when assuming that such a comeback is in the cards for the Braves in 2008.

It's not just one thing, you know? It’s just a whole damn slew of crap that’s been plaguing the Braves in 2008; injuries, ineffectiveness in all facets of the game, mismanagement of the personnel and roster, in-game mismanagement, and just flat out bad luck. If it’s not one thing, it’s been another...and no one thing can really explain what’s happened to this team over the course this season.

Though, if there is one thing that sticks out in my mind, it’s been the performance of our beloved Braves since June 4, 2008. You may ask: “Why not take into consideration the first 3 days of June?” After all, we normally do have piss poor performances in June. So what is the significance of that specific date? Well, that’s the day that John Smoltz held his press conference and admitted that he was not Superman, and that he would not be able to continue pitching through the excruciating amount of pain he was in. Now…I’m not blaming Smoltz, and I’d like to be VERY clear about that. I’m not even blaming the Braves for being shell shocked and heart broken after Smoltz told the world that his season was done.

However, I am disappointed that this Braves team, even with Smoltz’s presence on the bench, hasn’t responded by picking up the slack for a fallen brother. While waiting for Smoltz to become healthy, the Braves were 31-28, threading water almost on talent alone. Since Smoltzie’s press conference, the Braves are 9 games under .500, posting a 16-25 record coming to rest at the 47-53 they are currently at. That mark also includes a 2-2 record against the Marlins, 0-6 (two 3-game sweeps) from the Phillies, and a 1-2 mark versus the lowly Nationals who seemingly have our damn number this season.

Call it what you must; lack of heart, injuries catching up to us, mismanagement, or bad luck, this season hasn’t been kind to the Braves. Expecting the Braves to make a miraculous comeback to jump 3 teams ahead of them would be quite a sight to see, and I really do hope they do it, because I really could use some smile and laughter in regards to my baseball life nowadays.

But…at the same time, I am not going to optimistically hope that fate will allow us to get back into this race. Expecting more than another disappointing stretch run would be expecting everything to go absolutely right in a season in which everything thus far has gone almost absolutely wrong.

Let’s go Braves. Go Braves, indeed.

More Speculation: Starting Pitching

Ok, so we're inching closer to the all-star break and eventually the trading deadline, and I'm the type that likes to think of crazy scenarios and trade speculations. So here I am with a little bit of speculation as to some starting pitching the Braves might be looking into.

You may be sitting there wondering why the Braves would wish to add more starting pitching. After all, (despite the loss of Smoltz) the Braves are 2nd in the national league in starting pitching ERA, Jorge Campillo has been a hit (ironic...since he hasn't been allowing many hits) sensation as a starter, and Jo-Jo Reyes has taken positive steps in his development as a major league starter. Well, one problem is the innings pitched per start. Prior to tonight's game, the Braves' starters have accumulated 337.2 innings, good for 13th in the NL. Another issue is that the depth that we boasted prior to the season has all but been demolished due to injuries to Smoltz and Hampton and ineffectiveness of Chuck James.

Regardless of mishaps and misfortunes, the starters have averaged 5.54 IP per start. It ain't horrible...but yet, it is. Beyond Hudson (6.44 IP/GS) and Jurrjens (5.87 IP/GS) the next best mark is set by Smoltz (5.4 IP/GS) and Jo-Jo Reyes (5.38 IP/GS). Yes, that's right...our 3rd and 4th best innings eaters are a guy who is out for the season and a rookie 5th starter. Glavine sits at 5.12 IP per start, James at 4.6, and Bennett at 4.89 and Campillo at 4.75 get a free pass

because of their swing-man roles thus far. That's a big drop-off.

So we need an innings-eater. Not necessarily an ace, because we've got that role covered by Hudson, and Jair Jurrjens has shown the guts and grit that only the league's elite pitchers seem to have...but just an innings-eater. Someone middle-tier, nothing flashy, but just someone good enough to give us quality starts on a regular basis. The person I've targeted for the purposes of this article, Brian Bannister.

He seems to fit the mold of what the Braves are said to be looking for; a young starting pitching that they can retain beyond the next season and a half. After the season, Bannister will be 28 years old and have just over 2 years of major league service and is not slated to become a free agent until after the 2012 season. He is also an innings eater, averaging 6.07 innings per start in his career. On top of all that, he's mildly effective with a career 4.12 ERA and 1.265 WHIP. Like I said before: "Nothing flashy, but someone just good enough to give us quality starts on a regular basis."

The Royals need offense...badly. They will probably want to load up with younger players through any trade of a starting pitcher. It was suggested over at Chop Nation that the price tag for a pitcher like Zack Greinke would be Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge AND a starting pitcher like Charlie Morton, so what would it take to get a pitcher of a lower caliber like Bannister? Would Jones and/or Lillibridge be enough? Would they have interest in Scott Thorman? Or even Clint Sammons or Diory Hernandez for that matter? If we don't have to give up any young pitching or Jordan Schaefer, I'd chalk it up to be a good deal. Any prospects better than those listed...well, we'd probably want to second-guess how much we really want him. After all, Dayton has to make him available in the first place.

Smoltz done for the season, possibly career?

Ok...so this post is a bit after the fact, but I was an emotional wreck after learning of Smoltz' fate. He'll have season-ending shoulder surgery, and depending on how much damage there is and how much rehab it will take, he may possibly be done for his career. Despite his insistence that he'll do everything physically possible to return in '09, it's just not encouraging when even he doesn't know how badly he's hurt. The fact that he's pitched with this shoulder pain for two seasons already isn't a good sign, and I just hope for the best for him and his family at this point.

If this is really the end, I'd like to thank you, John. For everything.

Heart

Ok…so I went for a walk, and I did clear my head a bit, but the Braves lackluster play on the road still bothers me so much so that I just need to write a bit of a rant to blow off the last bit of a steam in me.

I know I’ve been quieter around here than I have been in a long time. There are a couple reasons for it, though. The first reason was because of school and final exams a couple of weeks back. I’m sure most of everyone understands the stress and irritability that comes along with exams, so I don’t think much needs to be explained for this segment of this little write up.

The second reason has been the Braves themselves. It may sound a bit counterintuitive, as you’d think I’d be around more to bitch and moan about the Braves road woes, but as negative as some have been around here, I have to say that I feel I would have made the overall negative aura worse by tenfold. Just as an example of how infuriated I become over this team and its road performances, just the other day…I threw a half-full bottle of Gatorade across my room, and I have no flippin’ idea where the heck it went. I’m just hoping I won’t find it 3 months from now looking like a 5th grade science project.

So, yeah…maybe I do have rage issues. I’m working on that. Really. I am. But at the same time, the Braves don’t make it easy for me to control my anger. Heck, I remember at the start of the season, I shrugged my shoulders on most of the Braves losses and said something along the lines of “Eh, bad luck” or “Eh, they just played better than us tonight.” It’s just become…too frequent. With each loss (especially on the road) where there have been a bad breaks, or bad calls that seemingly lead to our demise, it’s just become too hard to believe that this is just bad luck. 7-20 on the road this season, 0 for the last 20 or so on the road that have been decided by 1 run. It’s even greater than just some “bad f’n juju” as I described it at the beginning of today’s game thread at Chop Nation.

I discussed it briefly with bravestud at the end of that same game thread, and I said that it’s not about lack of talent, or lack of desire to win. I’m sure these guys hate losing more than we hate to watch them lose. So what’s the problem? Well, I think the problem lies inside each and everyone of the Braves players right now. It’s such an overwhelming aura that I can feel it permeating through the speakers on my laptop as Don and Pete described the team on the radio today. What this team lacks, in my opinion, is heart. They lack the heart to come through when faced with adversity in a hostile environment. It’s as if they lie down and accept the inevitable defeat when they have just as much, or an even better chance than thier opposition to win these games. The confidence isn’t there like it is when they’re rolling. The swagger. We’re the f’n Braves, damn it. We aren’t that far off from being the perennial powerhouse, are we? Have we forgotten? It sure seems like it. Like I told my friend and fellow blogger, Tommy, I wish I could see the Braves show any kind of emotion outside of being discouraged and flat in these situations. Get angry, get mad, get loose, cowboy the f'n heck up, get horny if you have to, I don't care...as long as you don't play like you're accepting defeat.

Perhaps Gene Hackman said it best in his role as Jimmy McGinty in “The Replacements” when he said “Heart. We gotta have heart.”

Meet the Mets

Step right up and greet the Mets.

Indeed, we did.

Now, I know the Mets are familiar with Tom Glavine, who stifled the Mets after a shaky opening inning, but I'd like them to go ahead and meet Jorge Campillo.

Campillo, the 29-year old right hander from Mexico, made just his second career start (his only other start was in 2005 when he tore a ligament in his elbow after 1 inning) against the New York Mets in the 2nd game of a twin-bill.

With Francoeur, Kotsay, and McCann out of the lineup for Atlanta, I'm sure the Mets were rejoicing. They must have felt that this was a chance to even up this series and gain some momentum headed into the final two games of this 4-game set. Well, guess again.

With an arsenal that may only be equaled by Carlton 'Doc' Windgate from the Major League III, Campillo absolutely baffled the Mets through 6 three-hit shutout innings Tuesday night. Perhaps what was most impressive was the fact that he K'd 7.

Oh, and that offense that was missing 3 key components still managed to put up 6 runs.

You know, there are years where everything seems to go right. There are years where everything goes wrong. There are years where you dominate the league. Then there are years that you just flat out suck; this year may be one of those years for the Mets. Not only does it seem that it's not in the cards for them, they just can't perform. I predicted about a week into the season that they'd finish 3rd in the NL behind the Phillies and Braves, and ahead of the Marlins, but it appears they might have a strong chance of finishing fourth (which is essentially last place since the Nationals aren't a real team). A poster at Chop Nation mentioned that you have to feel sorry for Willie Randolph, and I think that's true. The Mets are generally old, hurting, and they were ill-prepared for the hardships of slumps and injuries. I've always praised Omar Minaya for a decent job done in New York, but I can't extend it into this season...poor job, Omar. Piss poor.

Oh...and I hate to poke fun at players who get hurt in the heat of a play, because I used to play it balls to the wall as well, but how's your head, Ryan Church? Serves you right for now going into a proper slide, you dumb f*ck.

Mark Kotsay: Arbitration or not?

So the discussion of whether or not to offer Mark Kotsay arbitration after the season was brought up by yours truly over at the Chop Nation forums. Of course, I've got to be the bold one to suggest we risk offering arbitration under the conditions that; 1) he stays healthy in 2008, 2) he has a good year offensively.

So, with that in mind, you're probably asking why I'm suggesting we offer him arbitration after what can only be called a career year. Well, I've got a justified reason. Really. I do. Here are the pros of both scenarios:

If he accepts arbitration...

• We have a low-risk one-year deal that buys us one more year for Jordan Schaefer (whose progression is being delayed by an HGH suspension) and Gorkys Hernandez (who is probably at least another year off at the least) to develop even further before having to make their debuts.
• The one-year deal we give him will likely be in the neighborhood of $10M. Hardly breaking the bank.
• The best available CF aside from Kotsay is Corey Patterson. (Oh, please God, let us not sign him)

If he doesn't accept arbitration...

• We shift Gregor Blanco over to CF and bat him leadoff, moving Kelly J down in the order into a better run-producing slot.
• We take the draft picks that come as compensation.

In my books, it's a win-win. What do you think?

Personal Update

Ok...so BFH's View From The Rock died for a couple of months. There's a justified reason, though...and that reason is school. About two weeks into school, God decided to just pile it on. Homework, quizzes, exams, mini-projects, projects, and more projects. Well, 7 projects and 5 months later, BFH is back in business (sort of). Hopefully I'll be able to post regularly over the summer and into next semester...we'll see how it goes.

Next post will be about the person we last talked about...Mark Kotsay.