Sunday, September 21, 2014

BFH's GM Hot Seat: Re-Inventing the Vision

I'll be the first to admit: I like Frank Wren as a GM. He's not perfect, but he's far from God awful. That title is reserved for the game's non-elite that make GM stand for Giant Moron more so than General Manager--past names like Bill Bavasi and Dave Littlefield come to mind, as well as current GMs like Ruben Amaro Jr and Dan O'Dowd fit the bill. Nope. Frank Wren is no Giant Moron. That said, maybe Frank Wren is just a regular-sized moron; one that may be losing his job in the near future. 


As of this moment, 8:46 PM Hawaii Standard Time on Sunday September 21, Frank Wren still remains employed as the Atlanta Braves' General Manager. Whether or not he loses his job in the next 48 hours or so remains to be seen, but I'm here to play pretend and act as if he does. While we're playing in the realm of imagination-land, we'll pretend the Braves go against my desire to hand the job to Kim Ng and bypass all other legitimate candidates and do the unthinkable--hire me as the new General Manger of the Atlanta Braves. 

As I make the big move from Honolulu, Hawaii to Atlanta, Georgia I contemplate the task at hand. This team was supposed to be a winner, but for some reason fell flat on their faces. First, I probably interview the likes of Eric Wedge (if he desires to manage again), Dave Brundage, as well as formality interviews for guys like Terry Pendleton and Eddie Perez. Personally, I'd probably defer an ultimate decision to my newly-hired assistant-GM, Thomas Poe, so let's just say we hire a great managerial candidate and coaching staff that won't screw up the handling of the roster based on Thomas Poe's suggestion.

Moving forward, I saw the good in Frank Wren's design. It was a team that was supposed to draw a few walks and hit a few homeruns. Hell, it was a team that was even supposed to steal a few bases. Did any of that happen? Not so much, but a decent design has been left in front of me. Enough story-telling for now, though. Let's get right into some offseason phone calls. 


Trade #1: The Three C's - Crappy Contract Collaberation
Atlanta Braves get Edwin Jackson & Luis Valbuena; Chicago Cubs get BJ Upton, Brandon Beachy & $4M ($2M each in '15 and '16)

  • The Braves Perspective: You rid of BJ Upton. If you need more reasons, Valbuena is a solid infielder capable of playing some 2B and 3B with solid defense who can handle the bat against right-handers. Jackson is an unspectacular pitcher good for nothing more than throwing a bunch of innings. He didn't do so in 2014 because of a lat injury, but you could reasonably expect with a healthy season he can throw you 175+ innings of unspectacular baseball. 
  • The Cubs Perspective: They rid of Edwin Jackson and get a true centerfielder to go get the baseball in a young outfield with athletic corner outfielders. They also free up third base for the inevitable arrival of Kris Bryan and Addison Russell, whomever they choose will play 3B for them in the long term. They also get to buy extremely low on a starting pitcher in Beachy like they did Arrieta. Low risk and a high reward for them.
Trade #2: O Brother, Where Art Thou?
Atlanta Braves get Dylan Bundy, Zach Davies & Stephen Tarpley; Baltimore Orioles get Justin Upton
  • The Braves Perspective: No butt hurting here. As much as you'd like to think Justin' professional enough to understand this, not playing with his bro-bro has to sting just a little bit after two years together. Besides...there's absolutely no chance we're re-signing him after 2015. Someone's going to pay him....and let that be someone else, especially in the AL where he can become a defensive liability and age into a DH role. In exchange for JUpton, the Braves net some valuable and intriguing arms--one of which is nearly ready and has ace upside. 
  • The Orioles Perspective: I understand they normally don't trade their prospects, but they also haven't had the pressure to defend their division title (and possibly world championship?). They'll have the rare opportunity to reload their payroll differently this winter, being able to get out from under $30M worth of salaries between Markakis, Cruz and Hardy (not that all are bad investments). The chance to add Justin Upton, who may be more dynamic than Cruz and the better longterm investment, may be too much to pass up. 
Trade #3: No blood, but a Fowl
Atlanta Braves get Dexter Fowler; Houston Astros get Jason Hursh & Kyle Wren
  • The Braves Perspective: With the Uptons gone, you need to find an outfielder. Fowler fills that need plus another as he's capable of filling the leadoff role if you choose to use him there or lower down if you decide to waste his on-base and running skills. Besides....you also rid yourself of the last bits of Frank Wren's presence in the organization! w00t w00t
  • The Astros Perspective: Fowler served his purpose, which was to bridge the past with the future. With Marisnick and George Springer in the majors and Grossman lingering as well, the Astros can move on from Fowler and nab more prospects that are rising fast as they make their run at contending in a year or two. 
Trade #4: The Trademark
Atlanta Braves get Jackie Bradley Jr, Daniel Nava, Drake Britton & Rafael Devers; Boston Red Sox get Evan Gattis and David Carpenter
  • The Braves Perspective: Every GM needs that one move that stamps a signature on their work. This is mine. Braves nab an outfield platoon bat in Nava that will be capable of filling Justin Upton's shoes offensively while probably upgrading defensively in left field. Also obtained is a centerfielder of the future who could stand to spend another year at Triple-A after a trying 2014. Drake Britton provides some depth to a bullpen that needs another lefty and Devers....well, Devers gives the Braves an interesting young bat to play with. If you want to break it down....it's Carpenter for Nava, Gattis for Bradley Jr, Britton and Rafael Devers.
  • The Red Sox Perspective: They have no real need for Daniel Nava with so many outfielders on the roster. Instead of having to dump a perfectly good outfielder, they get a solid bullpen arm to help them rebuild a bullpen that needed help in front of Andrew Miller and Koji Uehara. For Gattis, the Red Sox upgrade in a big way behind the plate over AJ Pierzynski and now Christian Vasquez. Gattis, in that park, may be a 30-homerun threat. They sacrifice a struggling young centerfielder how may have just become organizational depth with the acquisition of Rusney Castillo and development of Mookie Betts. Britton would've been useful for them, but after adding Carpenter they can stand to lose a bullpen arm...especially since they have the to just bring back Andrew Miller if they really want a shutdown lefty. 
Trade #5: Topping off the re-vision
Atlanta Braves get Jon Mayberry Jr; Toronto Blue Jays get Juan Jaime & Luis Avilan
  • The Braves Perspective: They give up bullpen depth to acquire a platoon bat to keep Nava from facing lefties and to give Heyward the occasional day off against a tough southpaw. 
  • The Blue Jays Perspective: They may lose Casey Janssen to free agency and their bullpen ahead of him was a big ol' mess. Jaime provides a power arm on the cheap and Avilan a lefty with some history of success. They also avoid paying Mayberry in arbitration--however little he'd have made. 


    Free Agent Signings


    1. Re-sign Emilio Bonifacio; 2-years, $6M
    • Where Frank Wren skimped on his payroll/spending, I'll spend. Bonifacio returns to provide the Braves some versatility off the bench along with some speed. He won't be a world-beater, but he'll probably provide more value to the team than Ramiro Pena ever did. 
    2. Re-sign Gavin Floyd; 1-year, $4M with incentives to reach $8M
    • This is the one signing I loved last winter and all was well until his elbow blew up. Almost literally like a balloon. It was kind of gross. That said, if he's healed up, I don't see why he wouldn't accept a similar, if not identical, deal this winter and provide similar production....unless, of course, some team decides they've seen enough from him this year that they'll guarantee him 2-years. 
    The backup plan to Floyd is Brandon Morrow on a similar 1-year deal once the Jays cut him loose. I'd go as high as 1-year, $8M on Morrow. Nothing more. 

    3. Sign AJ Pierzynski; Split Contract Minor league deal. $1M salary with incentives if he makes the team out of spring.
    • Yeah, yeah. I hear you telling me he's a douche. Or a clubhouse cancer. Or that you simply don't want him because you can't friggin' spell his name to save your life. I don't care what you think. Honestly, I'm not too fond of Pierzynski myself, but I tend to think the general douchebaggery he's accused of is only placed upon him by opposing fans/players/those-not-in-the-know. I mean, Ozzie Guillen will bring the worst out in most players...Pierzynski no different. AJ has claimed to want to be a Brave for a few years now and we'll make him prove it with this deal. I have a feeling he wouldn't be a problem and a cheap investment with some decent upside off the bench from time to time in relief of Bethancourt. 

    The final roster

    SP Julio Teheran
    SP Mike Minor
    SP Alex Wood
    SP Gavin Floyd
    SP Edwin Jackson

    LR David Hale
    MR Drake Britton
    MR Kris Medlen
    MR Shae Simmons
    MR James Russell
    SU Jordan Walden
    CL Craig Kimbrel

    CA Christian Bethancourt
    1B Freddie Freeman
    2B Tommy La Stella
    3B Chris Johnson
    SS Andrelton Simmons

    LF Daniel Nava
    CF Dexter Fowler
    RF Jason Heyward

    CA AJ Pierzynski
    IF Phil Gosselin
    IF Luis Valbuena
    OF Jon Mayberry Jr.
    UT Emilio Bonifacio

    Final payroll including DUggla and BJ Upton payments - Approximately $107.5M

    The Braves retain a lot of rotation depth with Bundy continuing his comeback from surgery as well as Cody Martin, JR Graham, David Hale, Aaron Northcraft and Lucas Sims way down in the minors.

    The Braves grab some outfield depth with the acquisition of Jackie Bradley Jr and afford him another year of seasoning at Triple-A.

    Luis Valbuena could slot into the lineup at 2B if La Stella fails to hit or makes a big defensive mess of things.

    If you have to arrange the lineup....you could do it like this.
    RF Jason Heyward
    CF Dexter Fowler
    1B Freddie Freeman
    LF Daniel Nava/Jon Mayberry Jr.
    3B Chris Johnson
    2B Tommy La Stella
    SS Andrelton Simmons
    CA Christian Bethancourt

    It doesn't look like much, but Nava and Mayberry Jr would probably hit the crap out of the ball and combine for 20-25 homeruns and you may just have to hope Chris Johnson hits at this point because there aren't many other options. If he were to fail (or La Stella), Luis Valbuena could fill the role in a pinch and provide a healthy and powerful platoon at 3B as well. 

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